“It is time for a change, and we are it,” said Rishi Sunak last October. And with that, he ended his leader’s speech at the Tory party conference in Manchester. Most observers assumed at the time that it would be his last one before the next election.
Now, it seems, Sunak may get to sneak in one more conference speech before he fires the starting gun for the race to lead the UK’s next government. Speculation is growing around Westminster that the next general election could come on November 14th, after Sunak this week chose to dampen speculation that he would go to the polls in May.
The prime minister said on Thursday it was his “working assumption” that the election would be held in the second half of the year. A late summer election is all but ruled out as Brits depart in their droves for their holidays once schools break after the third week of July. September is also probably out, as the campaign would have to run during August while families were still away, before being preoccupied with the return to schools. That leaves October and November as the most likely months.
Shortly before Christmas, when the Labour Party was still feeding speculation that a May election was likely, former chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne predicted that a later vote was a much greater possibility. He suggested that he had been talking to sources in Downing Street.
“Even an October election is not really on the cards because they’ll be thinking of using September, October to launch what is more likely, in my view now, to be a November, December election,” he said on the Political Currency podcast that he co-hosts with former Labour politician Ed Balls.
Sunak’s two-year anniversary as prime minister falls on October 22nd, and it is thought likely he will want to reach that benchmark in Number 10. The US presidential election is on November 5th, and Sunak would also probably want to keep a little distance between the British and US polling days.
John Curtice, Britain’s foremost elections guru and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said on Friday that he sees the middle of November as the most likely time. By convention, British elections are held on Thursdays so that the results can be announced on Fridays, giving the new government the weekend to get itself sorted out before starting work anew on Monday. The second Thursday this November is the 14th.
“The prime minister will end the Conservative conference on October 2nd, [and] that might be the starting gun,” said Curtice.
If Sunak does, as expected, hold on for a later vote, the reasons for doing so are clear and obvious. Many of his MPs are desperate for the tax cuts that they say are essential to satisfy the party’s supporters. A later election also gives the public longer to feel the benefits of lower inflation, which has fallen from above 10 per cent a year ago to below 4 per cent now.
Lower inflation and taxes would buttress Sunak’s claim to voters that he is a competent steward of the economy, a traditional Conservative boast that was scuttled by the short-lived reign of Liz Truss.
There are risks in going long, however, and the prime minister’s centrepiece policy to deport many asylum seekers to Rwanda illustrates it perfectly.
We are ready for a general election. I think the country is ready
— Keir Starmer, British Labour Party leader
Later this month, Sunak will have to face down rebels in his party who want to change legislation he must force through to give effect to his Rwanda plan. If he steers it through, there is a possibility that deportation flights might commence, and the Tories could yield some electoral benefit if this deters further immigrants from landing on British shores.
Yet if his bid for Rwanda legislation fails, or if it goes through and fails to have any deterrent effect, then by delaying the election Sunak will have to negotiate another summer of headlines over his party’s struggles to control migration.
[ Sunak signals UK election will be held in autumnOpens in new window ]
A later election also ensures that the Tories will have to endure another challenging set of local elections, scheduled for May 4th, before facing a national vote. If, as expected, Sunak’s party gets another shellacking in the locals, it reinforces his image as an election loser rather than a winner – the Tories were hammered under Sunak’s leadership in the local elections held last year, while they have also lost a string of byelections recently in seats that were once considered safe.
“We are ready for a general election. I think the country is ready,” said Keir Starmer this week. The Labour leader has ordered his frontbenchers to have policies ready this month for the party’s manifesto, which he aims to have completed by mid-February.
But Sunak, it appears, is not ready just yet. The UK may have to wait for the change that he promised. What that change looks like will be a matter for the British when they go to the polls.
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Our In The News podcast is now published daily – Find the latest episode here
