Wisconsin judicial election shows abortion remains a key issue

From an Irish perspective, one of the more unusual features about the US system is that in many cases judges are elected by the people.

Last October, while travelling in Ohio in advance of the midterm elections, I was approached by a man at a Republican campaign stop where Texas senator Ted Cruz was speaking.

The man told me he was running for a position on a particular court, handed me a leaflet and sought my vote.

This system means that usually it is possible to forecast how an individual will rule on hot-button issues as a judge, based on how he or she campaigned in the election for the job.

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Earlier this week, there was an election for position on the supreme court in Wisconsin which may give an indication of the mood in the heartlands of the United States, just more than 18 months out from the next election.

Voters gave control of the Wisconsin supreme court to liberals for the first time in 15 years, re-shaping politics in the state and giving food for thought for election strategists across the country.

In arguably the most expensive judicial election contest in US history – with about $39 million (€36 million) spent on TV advertisements alone – liberal Janet Protasiewicz defeated her more conservative opponent, Daniel Kelly, by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

The margin was hugely surprising. Donald Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 and it is considered a swing state.

Protasiewicz, a Milwaukee county judge, ran a campaign largely based around abortion rights while Kelly, a conservative former state supreme court justice, appealed to the Trump base.

For a liberal to win so resoundingly would indicate that following the elimination of the federal right to a termination by the US supreme court in Washington last year, abortion is still a very potent electoral issue.

After the landmark 1973 Roe V Wade decision was overturned, in Wisconsin a state law dating to 1849 came back into force.

This law bans abortion in nearly all cases.

It is facing a legal challenge and could end up before the supreme court in the state, which will now have a liberal majority.

The new court may also look at election constituency maps in the state which Democrats argue have been aggressively gerrymandered to deliver Republican supermajorities as well anti-union laws that limited collective bargaining rights.

However, it is the potential political significance of the Wisconsin result that is being studied closely.

The Rupert Murdoch-owned Wall St Journal warned the Republican Party in an editorial on Thursday that any plans for total bans on abortion will be “a loser in swing states”.

“Republicans who insist on that position could soon find that electoral defeats will lead to even more liberal state abortion laws than under ‘Roe’.”

It said Republicans needed to get their position on abortion more in line with voters or the party would face another electoral disappointment next year, similar to last November when it was considered to have under-performed.

But changing tack to a more moderate approach to abortion is not on the minds of Republican politicians in several states.

In Florida, where Republicans are in full control of the legislature, there are plans for a ban on abortions after six weeks, down from 15 weeks at present. Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who many think is gearing up to run for the White House, is expected to sign this legislation.

Pro-choice advocates contend that this new measure in Florida would represent an effective total ban on terminations, as by the six-week mark, some women do not yet know if they are pregnant.

In Idaho this week, politicians went further with legislation aimed at restricting travel outside of the state for abortion in certain cases.

The new legislation makes it illegal to either obtain abortion pills for a minor or to help them leave the state for an abortion procedure without their parents’ knowledge and consent. Anyone convicted will face two to five years in prison and could also be sued by the minor’s parent or guardian.

The White House said after the Wisconsin result this week that the message from voters has been clear.

“Americans want the freedom to make reproductive healthcare decisions without government interference.”

The issue of abortion dominated US politics during the midterm elections last November.

As the electoral cycle moves inexorably towards November 2024, abortion rights for American women appears likely to continue to shape politics in many parts of the country.