Will sexual abuse verdict impact Donald Trump’s polling numbers in Republican primary?

Trump to lodge appeal, making further litigation on E Jean Carroll case certain

Donald Trump is by far the strongest Republican front-runner in the race for the White House in 2024.

However, as the presidential campaign heats up in the weeks and months ahead, Trump will have to deal – politically and legally – with the finding of a jury in New York on Tuesday that he sexually abused a woman in Manhattan nearly 30 years ago.

The jury, however, did not find that he had raped the magazine columnist E Jean Carroll in a department store changing room as she had alleged.

Overall the jury found that the former president should pay $5 million in total damages to Carroll arising from the sexual abuse and a separate finding that he had defamed her by describing her allegations as a “hoax and a lie”.

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How these findings affect Trump’s polling numbers in the Republican Party primary election and the subsequent general election remain to be seen.

Trump, after all, has faced accusations from various women for years with virtual political impunity.

He won the presidency in 2016 in the aftermath of the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape – which would have destroyed the campaigns of many other candidates – in which he was recorded talking about being able to sexually assault woman because he was “a star”.

The Access Hollywood tape featured prominently in the case brought by Carroll in the court in New York over the last fortnight. Ms Carroll’s lawyer argued that the recording was not just some “locker room talk” or male boasting, but rather a confession as to how Trump actually treated women.

Two other women gave evidence in the case of being sexually assaulted by the former president.

Trump has strongly denied any wrongdoing in relation to the Carroll case and all the other allegations brought against him.

He insisted on Tuesday that the verdict in the Carroll case was a “disgrace”. He has maintained that he only ever met Carroll at a reception line at a charity event and has no idea who she is.

Trump claims that the allegations against him were made to drive sales for a book Carroll had written in 2019 and to damage him politically.

Trump’s lawyer confirmed on Tuesday that the former president would be appealing the jury verdict, so there will be further litigation on this issue in the months ahead.

The findings came in the case a day before the former president is due to take part in a high-profile CNN town hall event in which he will take questions from voters in New Hampshire.

The Carroll case is not the only legal problem facing the former president.

A month or so ago he was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records under New York law in the so-called “hush money” case involving an alleged payment to a porn star.

This case, unlike the one on Tuesday, is a criminal matter and Trump, if found guilty, could face jail.

Separately, the former president is under investigation in Fulton County, Georgia in connection with his controversial recorded phone call in which he told the secretary of state Brad Raffensperger that he just wanted to find 11,780 votes – the number he needed to win the election in the state.

There is also the special counsel investigation in Washington into alleged attempts by Trump to overturn the 2020 election result as well as in relation to classified material found in his home and club in Florida.