As politics resumes in Washington, another US government shutdown could be on the cards

It is Labor Day weekend in the United States. Traditionally seen as the end of summer, it is considered a marker that autumn has well and truly arrived.

The US political calendar really does not have seasons. In reality the cycle rolls on to the next campaign almost as soon as the results of the previous election are announced.

However , Congress will return over the next fortnight after the August break. The weeks and months ahead will likely see an intensification – if that is possible – of political divisions as the 2024 election looms closer and begins to intersect with the legal difficulties of the former president Donald Trump.

Trump had been scheduled to appear in court in Georgia next week for arraignment on charges that he and others sought to subvert the 2020 election results in the state. But he waived the right to a hearing and pleaded not guilty in a submission as is allowed under Georgia law.

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Previous court appearances by Trump, as part of his various legal troubles across the country, have proved to be spectacles with supporters and critics demonstrating on the streets outside – although there has been no violence.

They have also provided opportunities for fundraising. Trump’s campaign generated a reported $7 million (€6.5 million) in the days following the release of his mugshot after he was “booked” or processed by the justice system in Georgia a couple of weeks ago. Both supporters and opponents of the former president cashed in by printing their own version of the mugshot on T-shirts, hats and the inevitable mugs.

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Trump is leading the field by a mile to become the Republican nominee for the White House next year, indicating that many party supporters have embraced his assertions that he is being politically persecuted.

It may be a mistake, however, to believe Trump can win only among Republicans and that President Joe Biden would easily beat him again in the general election in 2024.

Polls suggest that in such a contest the two are neck-and-neck, with Trump slightly ahead in some surveys.

While Trump has legal problems that will likely take him off the campaign trail for key parts of the coming year, Biden’s age appears to be a serious worry for many Americans who are also concerned about the economy.

Democrats campaigned vigorously – and successfully – on the issue of abortion in the midterm elections last year after the federal constitutional right to a termination was overturned by the supreme court. Undoubtedly the party will seek to do the same in the congressional and presidential election in 2024.

However, in a podcast interview this week with Tudor Dixon, the conservative who lost out in her bid to become governor of Michigan last year, Trump indicated he was very aware of the dangers posed by the abortion issue to his re-election prospects.

Dixon said to Trump: “You came to me and you said, you got to talk differently about abortion [during her election campaign]. And we could not pivot, we could not pivot in time.” The comments may explain Trump’s reluctance to back a national abortion ban as sought by some conservative groups and supported by some Republican candidates.

But presidential policy platforms are unlikely to be the only political controversies in the months ahead.

Republicans will continue with their investigations into Hunter Biden, the president’s son. The aim is to try drag Joe Biden into the various allegations of corruption.

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Republicans on Capitol Hill have spoken about how all this could lead to a move to impeach the president. However, significantly more evidence would likely have to emerge if such a process was to be credible.

More likely in the weeks ahead is that there will be another huge row over federal spending, which could lead to a US government shutdown.

Without action by Congress, the US government faces running out of money by the end of September.

This is a dispute over the US budget for next year and is different to the row that threatened a US debt default earlier this year that was averted following a last-minute deal between the president and House of Representatives speaker Kevin McCarthy.

The White House wants Congress to pass a short-term funding measure to ensure the government keeps operating after the current budget year ends at the end of this month. But some Republicans, who were unhappy at the Biden/McCarthy deal in June, are demanding sharp cuts to federal spending.

Any government shutdown could add another dynamic to an already fluid political situation amid uncertainty about who most Americans would blame for the impasse.