China’s Xi Jinping to begin Europe visit amid tensions over industrial policy and Ukraine war

Chinese president Xi Jinping arrives in Paris on Sunday for his first visit to Europe in five years amid tensions over China’s industrial policy and its approach to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The five-day trip will also include visits to Serbia and Hungary, which enjoy warmer relations with China than any of their European neighbours.

The Chinese leader’s most important political meeting will be on Monday, with French president Emmanuel Macron and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. European concerns about overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing, particularly of solar panels, electric vehicles and other green technology products, will be high on the agenda.

Xi has shifted investment in China away from traditional growth drivers such as construction towards what he calls “new productive forces”. This policy has seen Beijing offer huge support, directly and indirectly, to sectors such as electric vehicles, in which China is moving ahead of its competitors.

Macron and Von der Leyen favour a robust response to the threat they see to European manufacturers from a flood of cheap, high-quality imports from China. But they have faced resistance from German chancellor Olaf Scholz, who adopted a conciliatory tone on the subject when he met Xi in Beijing last month.

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Several German carmakers have big manufacturing bases in China, which is also one of their most important markets. They fear that if the EU imposes prohibitive tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China could retaliate in ways that hurt their business.

Although the dispute between China and the EU over industrial policy is difficult, both sides are experienced in trade negotiations and Macron suggested this week that Beijing and Washington are equally protectionist when it comes to trade.

“We are 10 times more open than the Americans or the Chinese. The consequence is that today we must behave respectfully towards China in terms of trade, but in a way that defends our interests, is reciprocal and promotes national security. Very clearly, on electric vehicles, photovoltaics and wind power, I defend the investigations that have been opened by the European Commission,” he told the Economist.

The issue that has soured relations between the EU and China more than any other is Beijing’s support for Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. China is officially neutral on the war and does not provide weapons to Moscow but it has offered diplomatic and economic support.

Later this month, Xi will host Russian president Vladimir Putin in Beijing, more than two years after they proclaimed their “no limits friendship”. Beijing’s interests do not require a Russian victory in the war but Xi will not wish to see the conflict end in a way that weakens Russia.

In his interview with the Economist, Macron said he wanted to get China on board for a new push against nuclear proliferation. Xi is likely to respond favourably to such a proposal and to encourage any move that signals Europe’s strategic independence from the US.

Xi’s visit to Hungary will reinforce his friendship with prime minister Viktor Orban and seek to encourage him to raise his voice in the EU against economic measures against China. Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD has recently extended its operations in Hungary to include the production of passenger cars as well as trucks.

Xi’s visit to Serbia will coincide with the 25th anniversary of Nato’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, which killed three journalists. Washington apologised and said it dropped the five targeted bombs in error but an investigation by the Observer and Danish daily Politiken concluded that it was deliberate.

The Chinese leader is likely to use the occasion to denounce what he calls “bloc politics” and to portray Nato as an aggressive organisation, a view that is shared throughout much of the Global South.

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