URC playoff permutations: who needs to do what to qualify?

Rarely, if ever, has the United Rugby Championship had a more competitive and intriguing run-in to the regular season. For the first time since the 2014-15 Pro12 campaign, any of the leading quartet in the table could yet finish first, which has the carrot a home play-off route to up to and including the final.

Furthermore, while the Ospreys in 11th place can still mathematically make the play-offs with wins over the Dragons and Cardiff, most likely the remaining four qualifiers will come from those teams ranked fifth to tenth.

With four points separating first to fourth, and six points between fifth and tenth, there is plenty of scope for positional movement yet, not least as the top 10 meet in five fixtures over this weekend’s penultimate round of matches.

Ulster’s encounter at home to Leinster on Saturday evening catches the eye, but Munster’s game against Edinburgh in the Hive Stadium tonight and Connacht’s final home match of the season against the Stormers tomorrow evening at the Dexcom Stadium look pivotal too.

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In the event of sides finishing level, their respective number of wins will determine their final standing, followed by points difference and then, if still unresolved, tries scored followed by points scored. Every point counts.

The likelihood is that Glasgow, Leinster, Munster and the Bulls will host the quarter-finals. The teams with the highest ranking will then have home advantage in the semi-finals a week later, so a top two finish would have that potential reward as well, while the final on Saturday June 22nd will be “at a venue designated by Pro Rugby Championship”.

This is designed to give organisers some elbow room in the midst of concert season, but in reality, the higher ranked finalist will have home country advantage. Hence, if this transpires to be Glasgow, the final will be held in Murrayfield, otherwise Leinster would host a final in Croke Park or Munster would do so in Thomond Park.

In the event of the Bulls being the highest finalist, the final would actually be played in the 95,000 capacity FNB Stadium in Johannesburg, as Loftus Versfeld has been booked for South Africa’s presidential inauguration that weekend. It’s a change from Ed Sheeran concerts or a Europa League final!

As for Champions Cup qualification, this season’s URC is now merit-based. Hence the top eight now qualify for next season’s Champions Cup, rather than ring-fencing the respective national shield winners, as happened last season when the tenth-placed Cardiff edged out the Sharks, despite them finishing eighth.

Ironically, though, despite sitting 12th, a full 23 points outside the top eight, the Sharks can secure qualification for next season’s Champions Cup by winning next Friday’s Challenge Cup final against Gloucester in Tottenham Stadium. In that scenario, the only way the team finishing in eighth place could qualify for the Champions Cup would be by winning the URC title outright, in which case the seventh placed side would miss out.

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Viewed in that light, Connacht (ninth), especially, and Ulster (sixth) still face a battle to make both the play-offs and next season’s Champions Cup. Four points adrift of the top eight, Connacht almost certainly need to win both their remaining games, at home to the Stormers tomorrow night and against Leinster in the RDS in a fortnight.

With both Edinburgh and Benetton (who clash in the final round) just a point behind them, Ulster most likely need at least one win from their final two games, against Leinster at the Kingspan Stadium on Saturday night and against Munster in Thomond Park on the final Saturday, to ensure a top six/seven finish.

For their part, Munster face a pivotal penultimate game in Edinburgh before hosting Ulster. After a run of seven successive wins, all bar one with a bonus point, Graham Rowntree’s in-form side have benefitted from a healthier injury profile and non-Champions Cup weekend respites to again find some end-of-season cohesion.

One more win would ensure Munster of a first quarter-final in front of their supporters at Thomond Park since scraping past Benetton five seasons ago. Their only play-off tie at the venue since then was their Champions Cup Round of 16 second leg tie against Exeter two seasons ago.

Win both their remaining games and Munster could conceivably have the possibility of a home semi-final and, at a push, a home final as well. On balance though, after Duncan Weir’s penalty with the last kick in Loftus earned them a second bonus point in their loss to the Bulls, Glasgow know that two bonus point wins away to the Lions tomorrow and at home to bottom of the table Zebre in a fortnight will secure top seeding in the play-offs.

Leinster will still believe they can chase down the Warriors and secure that top seeding for a fifth season in a row. Against that, as the last two seasons demonstrated when losing home semi-finals against the Bulls and Munster, this comes with no guarantees.

What’s more, the last time Leinster did not secure top seeding, they still advanced to the final when they went to Celtic Park and beat Glasgow in 2019. Leinster’s meeting with Ulster comes before facing Toulouse in the Champions Cup final next Saturday, to be followed by a six-day turnaround before hosting Connacht in the last game at the RDS before its redevelopment. Hence, the odds on a Croke Park final have decreased, never mind one between Leinster and Munster.

Put another way, if ever a squad is equipped to plot an away semi-final and final, it is Leinster. The risk is certainly worth taking when affording themselves ever chance of earning that coveted fifth star in the Champions Cup.

In any event, as with Toulouse also, next Saturday’s final for the ages between European rugby’s grandees in the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium looms large, after which the URC has the stage to itself.

Remaining fixtures

Round 17

Friday, May 17th: Zebre Parma v Scarlets, Stadio Lanfranchi, Parma (8.35pm local time/7.35pm Irish time); Edinburgh Rugby v Munster, Hive Stadium, Edinburgh (7.35pm).

Saturday, May 18th: Vodacom Bulls v Benetton, Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria (2pm local time/1pm Irish); Ospreys v Dragons RFC, Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea (3pm); Emirates Lions v Glasgow Warriors, Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg (4.05pm local time/3.05pm Irish); Connacht v DHL Stormers, Dexcom Stadium, Galway (5.05pm), Hollywoodbets Sharks v Cardiff Rugby, Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban (6.15pm local time/5.15pm Irish); Ulster v Leinster, Kingspan Stadium (7.35pm).

Round 18

Friday, May 31st: Leinster v Connacht, RDS (7.35pm); Glasgow Warriors v Zebre Parma, Scotstoun Stadium (7.35pm).

Saturday, June 1st: DHL Stormers v Emirates Lions, DHL Stadium (12.45pm); Benetton v Edinburgh Rugby, Stadio Monigo (2pm local time/1pm Irish); Scarlets v Dragons, Cardiff City Stadium (3pm); Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls, Hollywoodbets Kings Park, Durban (4.10pm local time/3.10pm Irish); Munster v Ulster, Thomond Park (5.15pm); Cardiff v Ospreys, Cardiff City Stadium (5.30pm).

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