UKAnalysis

English local elections show Labour’s poll lead is bang on

There was nothing in the results to suggest the polls are off, which suggests Keir Starmer should start packing for Downing Street

Labour leader Keir Starmer celebrating with a supporter in Northallerton, England, the victory of the new Labour mayor for York and North Yorkshire David Skaith. Photograph: Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

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Mark Paul London Correspondent
Fri May 3 2024 - 19:59

Labour and the Conservatives will spin the numbers to suit their agendas, but one thing is clear from England’s local election results: the polls are right.

Labour is way out in front heading into this year’s general election, and there was nothing in the local results to suggest that any of the polls are wrong.

Most surveys in recent months have put Labour about 20 points in front. British elections guru John Curtice told BBC on Friday evening that Thursday’s voting could be extrapolated into a national vote share giving Labour a lead of 19 points. “It really is for the most part a picture of stasis,” he said of the results.

Stasis in the polls, and reflected in the national vote, will put Labour’s Keir Starmer in Downing Street with a large majority.

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Conservatives say Ben Houchen’s win in the Tees Valley mayoral race is evidence Labour is not making the required headway into the working class “Red Wall” of northern England. Labour sources, meanwhile, say that the 19-point swing recorded against Houchen would still be enough to hand Starmer’s party victory in most Westminster seats in the local area. Houchen had a huge cushion.

The Blackpool South byelection swing of 26 per cent against the Tories cannot be spun as anything other than an unmitigated disaster for Rishi Sunak. Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s party, came within 117 votes of second place, which would have been a nightmare for the prime minister.

Reform came in with well over 16 per cent of the votes in Blackpool suggesting that, yet again, the national poll figures are right. The insurgent party is on course to do the Tories serious damage in the general election by splitting the right-wing vote, especially if Farage campaigns, which he has not yet.

It is thought likely that the Conservative incumbent Andy Street will hold on as mayor of the West Midlands area around Birmingham in a key result due on Saturday. Along with Houchen’s survival this might be just enough to prevent a big heave by rebels against Sunak next week.

But the results overall throw up another potential problem for the prime minister: he may be focusing on the wrong policies to halt the worst of the damage in a general election.

The Blackpool South result and a whole host of other council results suggest the “Red Wall”, where immigration is a key issue, is already lost for the Tories. Yet immigration tough talk is at the centre of almost all of Sunak’s messaging.

Taking such a line on this issue plays well in the “Red Wall”, but it turns off so-called “Blue Wall” moderate Tories in its southern England heartlands. If the “Red Wall” is already gone he must switch attention to defending the “Blue Wall”. All this talk of Rwanda may do him more harm there than good.

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