Catalonia elections: Socialists win at local level but region heads for stalemate

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party won a local election in Catalonia, affirming his decision to negotiate with the separatist movement in the wealthy northeastern region.

The regional Socialist candidate Salvador Illa won about 28 per cent of the vote, or 42 seats – shy of the 68 needed for an absolute majority. If he is able to cobble together a coalition – a difficult prospect – it would be the first time Catalonia has been ruled by a non-separatist party in more than 10 years.

“It’s the first time the Socialist Party has won the election, both in votes and in seats,” Mr Illa told reporters Sunday night. “This new phase that Catalonia opens today is a phase for all Catalans.”

If the Socialists are unable to form a ruling alliance, then it could mean a new election.

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Fugitive pro-independence leader Carles Puigdemont’s Junts got around 22 per cent, or 35 seats, becoming the largest separatist party in the region. Its rival independence party ERC, which currently leads a minority government in Catalonia and is led by Pere Aragonès, got 14 per cent, falling to 20 seats.

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Mr Illa’s victory represents an endorsement for Sanchez’s strategy in Catalonia of trying to tamp down the pro-separatist push by offering concessions, including amnesty, for those involved in an illegal independence referendum in 2017. Mr Puigdemont – who has been living in self-imposed exile in Belgium since then – would be the most high-profile beneficiary of the amnesty.

If the region goes to another election, it could benefit Mr Puigdemont, who would be able to campaign in Catalonia once the amnesty law goes into effect in the coming weeks. Mr Puigdemont held his campaign event on Sunday in Argeles-sur-Mer in France.

“If the other pro-independence party, ERC, is willing to think about the effects of the lack of unity and a single strategy, so are we,” Mr Puigdemont said.

The uncertainty surrounding Catalonia’s parliament could spell trouble for Mr Sánchez’s government, which relies on both the main separatist groups to pass legislation. If either Mr Puigdemont or Mr Aragonès pull support for the Socialists in Madrid, it could cause legislative deadlock and potentially a new national election.

Mr Illa has a very slim chance of forming a majority government, given that the pro-independence parties have both made a fresh referendum on Catalan independence a condition of their collaboration. That’s a “red line” for the Socialists, he said previously.

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The relationship between Junts and ERC has also hit a new low. After the two major separatist parties formed a coalition in 2021, Junts stepped away from it, sending the region on a path to Sunday’s snap election.

The challenge is made harder for all by the unusually stark personal animosities between Mr Puigdemont and Mr Aragonès.

“We have had a bad result – in fact a very bad result,” Mr Aragonès told reporters Sunday night. “It will be up to the Socialists and Junts to run the government. Voters have decided that we have to be in the opposition.”

A repeat vote is a likely scenario, according to experts and party insiders. That won’t be good for Catalonia, it won’t solve any of the fundamental problems facing Spain or its prime minister, but it might keep him on the high wire for another few months at least.

Public transport was disrupted in part of Catalonia on Sunday due to problems in the regional train network, which is run by the central government. The two leading pro-independence parties demanded that voting hours be extended in case people failed to make it to the ballot boxes, but the national electoral board dismissed the requests, leaving it to local boards to decide.

Turnout was 58 per cent, compared with 51.3 per cent in the previous regional election in 2021, when restrictions were in place to address the effects of the Covid pandemic. – Bloomberg