Irish house prices now 10% above their boom-time peak

House-price inflation has accelerated to an 18-month high of almost 8 per cent despite the affordability pressures on buyers.

The latest residential property price index from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) also indicates that property prices are now almost 10 per cent above of their boom-time peak.

The CSO’s national index of property values for April was 179.2, which is 9.6 per cent above its highest level at the peak of the property boom in April 2007. Dublin prices were still 1.8 per cent lower than their 2007 peak.

Overall, the figures showed prices rose at an average rate of 7.9 per cent in the 12 months to April this year, up from a rate of 7.4 per cent the previous month.

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In Dublin, values rose at an annual rate of 8.3 per cent in April, while prices outside Dublin were 7.6 per cent higher compared with a year earlier.

April was the eighth consecutive month to see an increase in headline inflation in the State’s property market.

It comes ahead of anticipated interest rate reductions across Europe. The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced interest rates by 0.25 per cent earlier this month and is expected to cut borrowing costs at least once more this year.

With supply pressures remaining and interest rates expected to start coming down, demand appears to be driving prices forward again.

Demand is also being driven by various Government incentive programmes, including the Help to Buy and the First Home schemes, which have fuelled activity among first-time buyers.

The latest CSO numbers indicate there were 3,572 dwelling purchases by households at market prices filed with Revenue in April worth about €1.4 billion. This represented a 9.5 per cent increase on the same month last year.

The figures suggest prices rose by 0.4 per cent month-on-month in April, after 0.5 per cent increases in March and February respectively.

The CSO said households paid a median or midpoint price of €335,000 for a residential property in the 12 months to April.

The lowest median price paid for a dwelling was €169,000 in Longford, while the highest was €624,999 in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown.

Dermot O’Leary, chief economist with stockbroker Goodbody, noted that in the three months to April 2024, residential prices rose at an annualised pace of 5.3 per cent. “This is in line with our forecast for the year as a whole and is roughly in line with the growth in nominal incomes, suggesting price growth is not excessive,” he said.

He also said non-household buyers (the State sector and investment funds) continue to be prominent in the market, with purchases up by 15 per cent in the year to date. This is particularly the case in Dublin’s new homes market where non-households account for 57 per cent of the total, he said.

“The CSO has yet to publish the full details on the make-up of these purchases for 2023, but the government sector is likely to be playing an ongoing important role here, particularly in the apartment sector given the weakness of the private rented sector,” Mr O’Leary said.

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