Probability Dynamics, the hedge fund trading firm backed by Dermot Desmond, had a loss for the year of €1.9 million in 2023, compared with €1.3 million the year before, new company accounts show.
That loss for the year brought its accumulated losses to €18.6 million and in the notes to the accounts the company’s directors state it is reliant “upon the continued financial support of its directors and related entities which will enable the company to meet its liabilities as they fall due”.
Probability Dynamics, set up in 2006, uses “applied mathematics, computational modelling and behavioural finance methodology to identify trends in global financial markets”.
The company’s belief is that “financial markets are, in reality, complex adaptive systems exhibiting behaviour which can oscillate between calm and chaotic, efficient and inefficient”, and develops quantitative models to trade financial markets.
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The accounts show the company had current assets of €499,847, down from €803,856 the year before. The majority of that figure was made up of €496,002 owed by trade debtors, down from €801,781 the year before.
The company had liabilities of €18.2 million, which was mostly made up of loans owed to related parties, which rose in value from €16.4 million to €18.1 million.
The biggest proportion of that was owed to The Bottin Limited Partnership, a company controlled by Dermot Desmond. During the year, it was given €762,000 in loans by The Bottin Limited Partnership, compared with €270,000 the year before.
Probability Dynamics invoiced another company called Hallworth Limited for €613,611, down from €912,160, “in respect of intellectual property licence fees”.
Hallworth is a subsidiary of The Crosswell limited Partnership, a company incorporated in Gibraltar. In previous year’s accounts, Probability Dynamics is described as a subsidiary of The Crosswell Limited Partnership, which is also connected to Mr Desmond.
The latest accounts also show that in December 2023, all of the shares held in Probability Dynamics, which had been held by IIU Nominees Limited, were sold to The Crosswell Limited Partnership.
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