Inflation drops to three-year low as global energy shock fades

Latest harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) drops to lowest level since 2021

Inflation fell to its lowest level since March 2021. Photograph: Eric Luke / THE IRISH TIMES

Headline inflation in the Irish economy fell to a three-year low of just 0.2 per cent in September, according to the latest flash estimate for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP).

This was down from 1.1 per cent the previous month and below the euro area average of 2.2 per cent. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) noted the 0.2 per cent rate of price growth was the lowest level of HICP inflation recorded since March 2021.

The weaker level of inflation was driven mostly by falling energy prices.

The CSO said energy prices were estimated to have decreased by 1.4 per cent in the month and fallen by 14.1 per cent over the 12 months to September.

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Food prices are estimated to have remained unchanged in the last month and risen by 1.5 per cent in the last 12 months.

The HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food, also known as the underlying or core rate of inflation, was, however, still by 1.8 per cent since September.

The Irish numbers will feed into wider euro zone inflation data due out on Tuesday. The figures are expected to pave the way for another European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut before the end of the year.

The HICP differs from the CSO’s consumer price index (CPI), the official measure of inflation in the Republic, as the latter includes mortgage repayments.

Graphic: Paul Scott

The CPI fell to 1.7 per cent in August.

The 1.1 per cent annual rate recorded for August compares with a rate of 1.5 per cent in July and 2.6 per cent for the euro area as a whole. The last time the HICP was this low was April 2021.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) said energy prices had fallen by a further 0.6 per cent in August, and were down by 9.5 per cent over the previous 12 months.

Food prices were, however, estimated to have risen by 0.1 per cent in the last month and by 2 per cent in the last 12 months. The HICP excluding volatile energy and unprocessed food prices was put at 2.3 per cent in August.

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Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times