Inflation in the Irish economy jumped back to almost 3 per cent in September.
The latest flash estimate for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) put the annualised rate of price growth at 2.7 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent the previous month.
Inflation as measured by the HICP dropped back to almost zero at the end of last year on the back of falling energy prices internationally.
Economists have warned, however, that statistical base effects would see inflation temporarily increase in the second half of 2025.
“It should be noted that prices between August 2024 and September 2024 fell by 0.8 per cent,” the Central Statistics Office’s (CSO) Anthony Dawson said.
“The low base in September 2024 has had an impact on the annual change of 2.7 per cent in the year to September 2025 being published today.”
The latest HICP snapshot for Ireland, which will inform figures for the wider euro area due out on Wednesday, indicated that prices on a monthly basis fell by 0.2 per cent.
[ Food price inflation in Ireland jumps to 20-month high of 5%Opens in new window ]
The figures indicated that energy prices fell by 0.3 per cent in the month but grew by 1 per cent on an annualised basis.
Food prices were estimated to have decreased by 0.2 per cent in the last month but increased by 4.7 per cent in the past 12 months, the CSO said.
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Grocery price inflation remains elevated in the context of overall inflation, a reflection of higher energy costs at a producer level.
Excluding energy and unprocessed food, the HICP is estimated to have risen by 2.7 per cent since September 2024, the CSO said.
The European Central Bank left euro zone interest rates unchanged for a second straight month in September as it weighed up the outlook for inflation.
The bank’s upgraded forecasts for inflation this year and next were, however, interpreted as lessening the chance of the another rate cut in the current cycle.
The governing council kept the bank’s key deposit rate at 2 per cent, a move that was widely expected, with European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde insisting the bloc was “in a good place” with inflation at 2 per cent.
In a speech on Tuesday, Ms Lagarde noted the euro zone economy was handling US tariffs better than earlier expected, leaving inflation risks “quite contained”.
“As we can model the future, the risks to inflation appear quite contained in both directions,” she said in Helsinki. “With policy rates now at 2 per cent, we are well placed to respond if the risks to inflation shift, or if new shocks emerge that threaten our target,” she said.
