Almost half of Irish adults say they will never use the internet because they believe it is not relevant or interesting, a survey has found.
This will result in a slowdown in internet take-up over the next few years and a failure to bridge an existing digital divide between different age groups and income classes.
Some 47 per cent of the adult population or 1.3 million Irish people think they will never start to use the internet, according to research by Amarach Consulting.
In addition, the internet is failing to take off among the over-50s and a majority of those in working-class households.
Currently a third of adults, some 895,000 people, use the internet. This should rise steadily to reach 43 per cent by 2003 before reaching a plateau, said the survey.
"Internet use at work has almost reached saturation levels and little additional growth will come from first-time users," said Ms Bettina MacCarvill, senior consultant at Amarach.
"Many people continue to see the internet as having no relevance to them and they are simply not interested in using it," she said. "The digital divide is not receding."
Amarach has also dramatically revised downwards its forecasts for the Republic's consumer e-commerce market to £100 million this year rising to £260 million (#330m) in 2003.
At the height of the dotcom frenzy last year, the consulting group forecast the consumer ecommerce market would be worth #1.1 billion by 2003.
Amarach said the downward revision of figures was due to the popularity of alternative payment systems, a continued lack of confidence in security and a lack of relevant online propositions.
The survey shows just 15 per cent of current internet users are making purchases on the Web and this is concentrated among young users.
Irish people made online purchases worth £20 million in the last three months, with an average purchase worth £180.
The most popular purchase was travel services, followed by books, music and computer software.
"Older internet users, especially 35- to 49-year-olds, are still dogged by security concerns. And there are few online offerings that hold real appeal beyond small niche markets," said Amarach.
Amarach's report is based on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adults aged 1574. The most recent interviews were conducted in April and May 2001.