The independent report into AIB's massive foreign exchange losses at its Allfirst subsidary is expected to name individuals and outline their roles in the fraud, according to AIB chairman, Mr Lochlann Quinn.
Former US currency controller, Mr Eugene Ludwig is expected to hand over his report into the $691 million (€795 million) loss at the US subsidiary to Mr Quinn this weekend. Mr Quinn said the board of directors would react swiftly to that report and could make their actions known to the public as early as next week.
Mr Quinn refused to speculate on what might be in the report but expects it to be a factual account of what happened, naming individuals and explaining their roles. It will be up to the board to decide the fate of individuals identified.
"It is not Mr Ludwig's brief to say now that this has happened you have got to do X, Y and Z. The bank is still run by the bank and the board. It's for Mr Ludwig to give us a factual description of what happened. In doing that he has got to name names per se. He will mention all sorts of names I assume. He would be unable to tell the story without it."
The board will do what it believes is "appropriate and responsible", Mr Quinn said. "I suspect Rusnak is going to go anyway. I suspect he is already gone. After that I will have to wait and see."
Mr Quinn admits his confidence in the bank's senior management team has been dented by the massive fraud at Allfirst. "I didn't believe something like this could have happened. Most people couldn't believe it could happen but it has and confidence has to be impacted, but until I get Mr Ludwig's version and analysis of how it happened, there is no point in coming to a conclusion."
Shareholders, staff and customers may never know exactly what went on at the bank and just how inadaequate its controls were as they will only be given a summary of Mr Ludwig's investigation prepared by AIB.
"You are not getting it [the report]. If Ludwig was to write this report knowing it was going to be published, I think it might cramp his style. It is a confidential report for the board but I am conscious of the fact that shareholders and customers, whatever, are interested so we are going to produce a summary."
Mr Quinn said he would ask Mr Ludwig to confirm the summary was "fair and complete" so that nothing of consequence is left out. "If I was to ask him to write a report that was for publication it would take him another month to write it." The board will be saying to the public "here's the report [the summary]. This is what we have decided to do." Mr Ludwig brought a small group of experts to assist him with the Allfirst investigation but 95 per cent of his team comprises AIB staff, according to Mr Quinn.
The chairman has granted him access to whatever documentation he requires and is free to talk to whoever he chooses but Mr Quinn doesn't expect any of the other bodies investigating the fraud to have an input.
"I am not inquiring in great detail into what he is doing. He knows what to do. He has been given carte blanche to talk to whoever he likes."
The reliance on information gathered within AIB with the assistance of some of the bank's employees has raised some questions as to the independence and the validity of Mr Ludwig's report. Mr Quinn utterly rejects this view pointing to Mr Ludwig's high standing in the global financial community.
"I would be amazed if it wouldn't be accepted as independent by the market. The guy is highly respected. He was effectively controller of about 3,000 banks in the US. He is immensely respected in international markets". The board is mindful that the failure at Allfirst goes to the heart of the controls across AIB group and management's ability to run an international bank. "How can you be certain that it doesn't exist in London, Belfast and Warsaw?" Mr Quinn asked.
He pointed to the very different strategy AIB has always adopted when running its US business. It was a policy decision to run it from a distance, he maintained.
"The feeling was we had a US bank run independently by an American board which was well regarded within the community. That was part of the logic as to why this was successful. There may have been merit or not in the philosophy but anyone who ran their US operations very tightly left the US with a bloodied nose. That would have been regarded by many people in Europe as the reason why it succeeded."
Mr Quinn said the bank would have to re-think this strategy.
He said he could not quantify the impact of events at Allfirst on AIB's reputation and business so far.
This would take three to six months, he said. Lots of major banks have had major problems and they are still in business."