CURRENT ACCOUNT: Expect another set of poor results from radiators and plastics outfit Barlo next week.
Attitude towards Barlo shares had been dismal for the best part of a year but analysts at Goodbody have turned exceptionally bearish towards a company that might charitably be described as one of the market's walking wounded, but in reality is one of the market's living dead.
Goodbody analyst Robert Eason is forecasting a pre-tax loss of €8.2 million, a far more negative forecast than Barlo's own broker Davy, which is expecting a loss of just €3.1 million.
The Goodbody analyst is expecting Barlo to unveil an exceptional restructuring charge of €12.8 million and interest charges of €10.1 million, covered just 1.7 times by operating profits. Mr Eason believes that there has been no improvement in trading conditions for Barlo since its last profits warning in December and holds out little hope for any improvement in the share price. Barlo is trading currently at just €0.26, down from €1.19 a year ago, and that values the company at only €45 million. ...
But despite all that gloom, Goodbody believes that Barlo is a management buy-out candidate, despite being saddled with estimated debt of €143 million at the end of March. Frustrated institutional investors - BIAM, AIBIM, Friends, Aberdeen and Standard are the biggest - would gobble up any half-decent MBO offer even if Barlo shares are trading 80 per cent off their 1994 high of €1.22.
Venture capital and private equity houses would no doubt take a detailed look at Barlo's horribly leveraged balance sheet, but Goodbody believes there is scope to fund an MBO through potential asset disposals and a cutback in capital expenditure.
Current Account is not quite convinced that a Barlo MBO could be funded quite that easily. The financial backers of any MBO will need to see where the growth in the company will come from. Somehow, if a venture capitalist wants to back an Irish plc MBO, there are more attractive candidates than a packaging and radiator company with gearing of 125 per cent and exceptionally tight interest cover.
That's not much consolation for Barlo's long-suffering shareholders, but maybe Tony Mullins will pull a rabbit of his hat next week. Maybe!