Better chance for euro `outs' of getting in

For the euro outs, the chances of being in are looking up

For the euro outs, the chances of being in are looking up. From the Aegean to the Baltic, a combination of stock market and currency stability, falling interest rates and growing business optimism since the European single currency's launch has enabled previously lukewarm governments, particularly in Sweden and Denmark, even in Britain, to make encouraging noises about joining. And Greece appears to be racing to qualify.

In Stockholm and Copenhagen, economists and political commentators say it is now a question of when, rather than if, the countries will announce their support for euro membership.

The two Prime Ministers, Mr Goran Persson of Sweden and Denmark's Mr Poul Nyrup Rasmussen have vowed to make the euro a success. But like their British counterpart, Mr Tony Blair, both have made clear they cannot seek membership without the backing of a referendum.

The Nordic duo remain reluctant to name a date for such referendums, but there are growing signs at least in Sweden that a vote could take place next year, paving the way for possible entry in 2001.

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Mr Persson has signalled his willingness to hold a special party congress next year, likely to approve a referendum campaign platform on the euro. In Copenhagen, Mr Nyrup Rasmussen said: "My personal view is that I think it is best for Denmark, for employment and our welfare society that we join the euro at some point." Both politicians, however, recognise that they cannot risk a referendum until they can be reasonably sure of a yes vote and that will require a convincing campaign to swing public opinion solidly behind the euro.

What is more important, they are unlikely to commit themselves to such a campaign without a strong signal from the British government that it will apply for membership.

Anti-euro campaigners in Scandinavia have used Britain's agnostic approach to justify their continued abstention. So Mr Blair's strategy towards the currency could prove pivotal not just for Britain, but Sweden and Denmark too. The British government's public position is that it has no objection in principle to joining the single currency but that Britain needs a period of "settled and sustainable convergency" with the euro zone economies.

That is a view fully endorsed by Mr Persson and Mr Nyrup Rasmussen, who face opposition from within their parties and among union allies to membership.

Unlike Mr Blair, however, they have been more overtly favourable about the benefits of the euro zone and the possible loss of influence by remaining outside.

Neither, however, is as enthusiastic as Mr Costas Simitis, the Greek Prime Minister. At a meeting in Madrid recently, Mr Simitis said Greece which has so far failed to meet the euro-convergence criteria would almost certainly qualify for membership in 2001.

Mr Simitis, moreover, is sufficiently confident of public support to rule out the need for a referendum. While euroenthusiasts in all three countries want their governments to give a clearer lead and set a target date for entry, it is not politically expedient to do so yet. Party divisions and public suspicion dictate a softly, softly approach to eventual membership.

In London, government insiders say Mr Blair will continue to be cautious and that offering an indicative timetable is not realistic. They say Mr Blair believes public opinion will gradually come round in favour of the euro and that there is no need for the government to antagonise the mainly antieuro press.

Signs of growing public enthusiasm have allowed senior Danish and Swedish politicians to be more fulsome about euro membership, warning that they risked being marginalised by refusing to join.

Recently Mr Blair appeared to echo that sentiment: "Even though I know I've got a lot to do in convincing the country on this, it would be the biggest failure of leadership imaginable if I fail to point out to the British people the consequences of walking away from Europe and leaving ourselves without influence in it."