Big carriers have most to gain from WTO deal on telecoms liberalisation

THE euphoria among trade representatives and their delegations to the World trade Organisation talks on telecommunications services…

THE euphoria among trade representatives and their delegations to the World trade Organisation talks on telecommunications services in Geneva was understandable. After three years of often gruelling negotiations, they had finally reached agreement on ushering in an era of free competition, low prices and cross border investment.

But there was a strong element of chauvinism mixed in with the jubilation - perhaps surprising for talks designed to benefit all the participants rather than playing to the strengths of any one country or trading bloc.

For Ms Charlene Barshefsky, the US trade representative designate, the agreement was a triumph for the American way. "US companies are the most competitive telecommunications providers in the world; they are in the best position to compete and win under this agreement," she said.

Even Mr Ian Taylor, the British Science and Technology Minister, felt impelled to make the case for British contenders.

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Such rhetoric reflected the politicians' need to play to the gallery back home. But it is also based in fact: Ms Barshefsky and Mr Taylor know their countries have the advantage of the experience of more than a decade of competition and are best placed to benefit from liberalisation.

"The developed countries will get the lion's share of this market," says Mr Neil McMillan, the British civil servant who chaired the negotiations.

It is an enormous market. Figures from the International Telecommunication Union suggest trade in telecommunications was worth $788 billion (£501 billion) in 1995, of which three quarters came from the sale of telecommunications related services.

The talks, which had been in progress intermittently since 1994, failed last April because the US did not believe enough satisfactory offers on opening markets had been put forward by other participants.

The agreement is also significant in providing - for the time in world trade negotiations - the basis for a regulatory structure to manage competition in an open way.

In the short term, the principal beneficiaries of the Geneva agreement will be the big carriers with a well developed international presence. Many of these have formed global alliances to attack new markets. These include AT&T's World Partners - to which Telecom Eireann has a link through its recently negotiated alliance.

National operators facing competition for the first time from the alliances will be forced to go it alone or attempt to dominate a national niche.

But if the countries with the most competitive operators expect to be winners, must there not also be losers?

Not so, says Mr McMillan. "I cannot see that anybody can lose from this deal - apart from those countries which believe they can continue to make super profits from telecommunications behind trade barriers."

His conclusion is given weight by the fact that almost 70 countries representing about 90 per cent of the world's telecommunications revenues felt encouraged to sign the deal. The chief non signatories are China and Russia, both of which have yet to become members of the WTO.

Improvements in offers apart, there are three principal reasons why a deal proved possible last weekend. First, the participants realised that failure would mean fresh negotiations could not be concluded much before 2006 - a disastrous delay given the speed of change in the telecommunications industry.

Second, the developing countries increasingly realised they had more to lose than gain by keeping their markets closed, particularly as they need to attract substantial foreign investment to maintain their networks.

Third, there was a growing understanding among operators that trade liberalisation was important for them and could vide them with benefits such as investment and access to foreign markets.

Telecommunications markets will continue to open up, national operators will be privatised and call prices will continue to fall with or without the Geneva agreement.

But the importance of the deal as a catalyst cannot be over emphasised. The US may have been right to hold out for better offers, but it took quite a risk.