C&C - dull but not necessarily unattractive

C&C doesn't get much luck

C&C doesn't get much luck. Having pulled its last attempt at an initial public offering (IPO) because of disorderly markets, global equities have once again gone into a funk, this time because of the prospect of increases in US interest rates and rising oil prices.

Additionally, in the run up to its most recent flotation effort, the company has attracted negative comments from analysts and fund managers.

A remark from a leading analyst typically reflects market response to the group: "C&C is in a really strong market position with good brands across a number of products. The problem is that those markets are saturated."

The point is that, since we all now instantly recognise Bulmers cider, Tayto crisps and Club Orange, the years of stellar growth in turnover are behind us.

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Talk to anyone about C&C and they will immediately mention growth prospects or, rather, the lack of them. The company has an excellent history, particularly in terms of profits growth, but it is a struggle to see how that can be repeated.

A lack of obvious growth prospects does not necessarily make C&C a bad investment but it does throw the likely valuation of the company into sharp relief.

The investment bankers will have to put an attractive price on this one to ensure enough institutions participate.

In some ways, there are echoes of the Eircom flotation: a company with limited growth potential that had to offer a very high dividend to attract investors. In similar vein, C&C may not be as sexy an IPO as Google but that does not mean it will fail. It does mean, however, that the price has to be right.

C&C argues that negative perceptions about growth are coloured by the difficult years of 2002 and 2003, when the overall economy was relatively weak, consumer spending growth had slowed and an 87 per cent rise in excise duty on cider hit sales hard. All this, the company suggests, is in the past, remembering instead that C&C grew its cash flows by a compound rate of 18 per cent between 1986 and 2001.

Suggestions at the time that the 2002 flotation would be done at €3 (compared to a more likely €2 today) came largely on the back of that growth rate continuing. But that was also when C&C successfully branded Bulmers cider as a premium drink: volume sales of cider in the Republic grew by more than a factor of five over the past decade and a half.

The worry is that such tricks can only be pulled off once. Most independent analysts think that C&C will, at best, be able to maintain single-digit earnings growth.

The critical question for the company, however, remains the same as during the last flotation attempt two years ago: where does C&C go next?

There are encouraging signs from Northern Ireland, where some success with cider has been achieved. Cider has a different, more down-market image in Britain. This difference extends to Northern Ireland, so some analysts give the company credit for its achievements there.

Test marketing of Magners (what Bulmers is called in the UK) in Glasgow also offers hope for growth. But that's it.

"Northern Ireland and a toe-hold in Glasgow" does not look like a marketing strategy designed to replicate 1990s-style growth rates.

C&C's balance sheet will make some people nervous. Around €480 million in net debt suggests limited scope for gearing (extra borrowing) should a growth opportunity (like an acquisition) present itself. It is no surprise that the funds raised from the IPO are flowing straight back to the company's owners but a better story would be told if some of the cash raised was used to clean up the balance sheet.

To be fair, the company has reduced its debt over the past few years, mostly via the sale of non-core assets, and the balance sheet is stronger than it was. But with goodwill comprising the bulk of the asset side of that balance sheet, there will be questions over the underlying brand value.

BC Partners will see its stake in the company fall from 90 per cent to roughly 37 per cent. Its remaining stake (which is subject to lock-up provisions that are not going to last very long) could represent a threat to future share price performance, and some analysts believe that if there is a time to invest in C&C it will only happen after the overhang is eliminated and the venture capitalists are no longer owners.

The decision by C&C to allow an Eircom-style institution-only offering is hardly a sign of great confidence in the attractiveness of the shares.

Given market conditions and the worries over growth, the shares are likely to be pitched towards the lower end of the €2.26-€2.74 indicative range.

If so, the dividend will be more than 5 per cent, which some people argue is attractive, given low interest rates available for deposits. While this is absolutely correct, many will remember the same arguments being applied to the Eircom dividend (higher than C&C's).

Of course, we are not comparing like-with-like when we mention C&C and Eircom. The company does have a peer group of sorts, but it is tough to make meaningful comparisons with the likes of Diageo. On a straight valuation basis, however, C&C looks likely to be cheaper than other beverage-type companies around Europe.

Growth is not just a problem for C&C. Many companies with household names are struggling to present a compelling investment case against a background of single-digit earnings growth rates.

Microsoft, AIB and C&C are three very different companies with similar issues: operating in relatively mature markets with increasing competition is not a recipe for growth. And it's not just about these three companies: there are huge slices of the global equity market that have precisely these low-growth characteristics.

That does not mean that equities are necessarily unattractive, but it definitely means that they are unexciting. Which is about as accurate a description of the C&C offering that I can think of.