EXPERIAN'S DECISION to embark on a full scale study of the various retail facilities in Ireland will be welcomed in particular by multiple traders planning to roll out new stores over the coming decade.
The study is intended to help them identify where retail spending is likely to rise as well as fall.
Experian's prediction that the three largest suburban shopping centres - Dundrum, Liffey Valley and Blanchardstown - will see a drop in consumer spending by 2018 may prove wide of the mark given the expansion plans for each of the centres and the growing frustration with travel in the city centre.
On the other hand, spending trends could change in the event of a prolonged economic recession or if particular areas are over-shopped. There is already clear evidence that some of the provincial shopping centres opened in the last two years are underperforming.
One of the shortcomings of the Experian report is that it does not identify consumer spending in either the Ilac centre or the St Stephen's Green shopping centre, opting instead to include the turnover from both centres in that of the city centre.
Another surprising omission is the spend from The Pavilions shopping centre in Swords - but the smaller Omni Park shopping centre in nearby Santry is included.
A press release issued with the report said that several small towns stand to benefit from decentralisation and went on to mention that Carrickmacross (where, you might ask?), Co Monaghan will see a significant growth by 2018, with the spend up from €13 million to €36 million - or 168 per cent. Unfortunately for Carrickmacross, it is only promised 80 new jobs under the decentralisation programme so, despite topping the list of winners, it is unlikely to attract the Harvey Nichols, TK Maxx or Zara brands.
Treasury Holdings will not be happy with the prediction that Stillorgan shopping centre is set to lose 23 per cent of its turnover in the next decade but, given that there has been no signs of a resolution of a planning dispute which has been going on since 1999, Johnny Ronan could well wonder if the place is jinxed.
However welcome the Experian report, it will surprise many that the retail markets on either side of the Border have been treated as one for the purposes of the study.
The reality is that they are two distinct markets with little in common between Liffey Valley and Lisburn or Blanchardstown and Belfast. A separate study on each of the jurisdictions would have been more useful.
