Dublin shipping executive Mr Austin Conboy now seems virtually certain to end up with enough Capital Bars shares to prevent the O'Dwyer brothers compulsorily buying his stake under their 21p sterling recommended offer.

By last Friday's second closing date, it is understood that Mr Conboy had bought 5.7 million of the shares.

This leaves him with a 9.5 per cent stake in the company when account is taken of 23.5 million additional shares that will be issued to the O'Dwyer brothers today and 3.5 million share options that have yet to be exercised.

It is understood that Mr Conboy will need to buy another 300,000 shares if he is to take his shareholding above the 10 per cent where his stake cannot be compulsorily acquired.

It is understood that about 800,000 shares have still not been accounted for.

Sources close to Capital Bars have conceded that it is likely that he will pick up enough of these "undecideds" to move beyond 10 per cent.

As of last night, the O'Dwyers have about 85 per cent of the diluted share capital, 3.5 per cent represents share options that will be exercised, Mr Conboy has his 9.5 per cent, and 1.5 per cent is undecided.

Capital Bars is expected to extend its 21p sterling per share offer for another two weeks, but the offer will finally close on February 5th when the shares will be delisted from the London and Dublin stock markets.

At that stage, it seems likely that Mr Conboy will end up as a 10-11 per cent shareholder in a private company, with no market for the shares he has bought over the past few weeks.

Mr Conboy's stakebuilding in Capital Bars in recent weeks has cost him more than £1.4 million sterling (€2.3 million).

It is understood that neither the O'Dwyers nor Capital Bars has had any direct contact with Mr Conboy.

It remains to be seen whether that situation will change when the company is taken private with the O'Dwyers owning about 89 per cent of the company.

Mr Conboy has said before that he would buy up to 25 per cent of Capital Bars on the market and his buying has been at 25p and 26p a share, well above the 21p offer from the O'Dwyers.

His likely 10-11 per cent shareholding in Capital Bars is not large enough to confer on him any special rights, although his presence may be a "nuisance factor" for the O'Dwyers.

Market sources believe that at some stage he will look to be bought out.

The big question then will be whether the O'Dwyers will offer him a price that would allow him break even on his investment, let alone exit with a profit.