Decline in Asian markets hits trade surplus

Exports of goods to almost all Asian markets fell last year as Ireland's trade surplus narrowed for the fourth year in succession…

Exports of goods to almost all Asian markets fell last year as Ireland's trade surplus narrowed for the fourth year in succession. Detailed figures published yesterday by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) indicate that the State's trade surplus of €28.3 billion is now the lowest since 2000.

Headline data for January, also available yesterday, show that trend continuing.

Overall, the trade surplus was 3.3 per cent down on the €29.27 billion recorded in 2005. Exports last year rose 2.2 per cent to €88.7 billion but this was outstripped by a 5.1 per cent increase in imports.

Minister of State for Trade Michael Ahern expressed satisfaction with the latest data. "For the past three years, we have continued to make gains on our export position of the previous year and I am pleased to note that this upward trend has continued," he said.

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He drew particular attention to the 72 per cent rise in exports to Malaysia, which he noted was "one of the priority areas identified in the Government's Asia Strategy".

However, yesterday's figures indicate that the State's trade deficit with Asia is widening. Despite the increase in business with Malaysia, exports to the region as a whole fell 2 per cent last year to €6.57 billion. At the same time, imports from Asian countries rose 7.7 per cent to €12.7 billion.

As a result, the trade deficit with the region jumped over 20 per cent to €6.2 billion.

Overall, import growth last year was driven principally by computer equipment and fuel while organic chemicals were, as usual, a dominant feature of the export market.

But Goodbody analysts Dermot O'Leary and Deirdre Ryan noted that the 3.1 per cent increase in the value of chemicals exports was the lowest rate of growth since 2003.

"The data highlights the ongoing difficulties that have faced Irish exporters over the past number of years, with competitiveness issues further underlined.

"Exports have still failed to return to their 2002 level on a value basis while imports have been growing strongly since 2003."

Aside from the overall growth in exports, there was some good news in the detailed figures. The Goodbody analysts pointed out that indigenous exports had performed strongly in 2006.

"Exports increased by 9.5 per cent in 2006 in the food and live animals category and accounted for some 30 per cent of the growth in total exports," the Goodbody team wrote in a note to clients.

"It is clear that 2006 was a highly successful year for the Irish food sector and highlights the important role still to be played by one of Ireland's most important indigenous sectors."

Davy economist Rossa White said the 2 per cent increase in export volumes in the fourth quarter of last year was less than had been expected.

Mr White said the market had expected a rise in excess of 5 per cent on the basis that previously released data on the value of foreign trade for 2006 had been adversely impacted by the soft dollar - in which three-quarters of Irish exports are priced.

Dominic Coyle

Dominic Coyle

Dominic Coyle is Deputy Business Editor of The Irish Times