It has become a frustrating fact of life that shifting goalposts are one of the few constants of the online revolution. Anyone who has ever been to an Internet conference will be familiar with having their head filled with the next "big thing". The rate of technological change is now so fast it is practically impossible to keep pace.
The result is a limbo of sorts, where the name of the game is Internet, the goal is becoming commercial gain, but the rules for achieving the goal are still up in the air. The Internet throws open a whole new marketplace, but nobody is certain of how to trade there in the most cost effective way. This is why reports and surveys are invaluable in offering insight into consumer behaviour.
A new survey of Irish Internet activity has yielded some useful findings about our attitude to paying electronically for goods and services. The Internet and its Future for Ireland, a survey conducted by Irish Marketing Surveys last June for Amarach Consulting, shows that Irish Internet users represent a powerful consumer group. With more than a third of Irish consumers expecting to be online in coming years, a third of this group is likely to own a credit card. That is more than double the normal level of credit card ownership.
While most of these users are young and single - with 71 per cent from ABC1 social classes - they tend to be insensitive to price. Only 18 per cent said they looked for the cheapest products when shopping, most likely a reflection of their tendency to come from higher social backgrounds.
The absence of significant barriers to trade through the simple mechanism of online shopping is spurring more and more Irish people to shop online. A recent Irish Internet Association survey found that nearly 30 per cent of those surveyed had purchased something online in the year to last April.
But before retailers everywhere dash to establish an Internet presence they should also be reminded of one of the most startling findings of the survey. If prices are 10 per cent cheaper or more, Irish Internet users are very likely to shop elsewhere in Europe - this includes products like cars and personal loans. This suggests that the slow growth of online shopping here, by comparison with the rest of Europe, is caused by a lack of Irish companies offering products that are shipped locally. Shipping charges online can still be prohibitive, though they are likely to come down as economies of scale are achieved. Local suppliers need to get in early to build a loyal client base.
With Forrester Research estimating that Ireland's electronic market will be worth $620 million (£410.6 million) by 2001, the onus is on Irish business to rise to the challenge. However, establishing which businesses have the most to gain presents a significant challenge.
Operating at polar extremes, e-commerce evangelists proselytise at one end, and paranoid technophobic business leaders quake at the other, at the expense of boarding the e-commerce bus. Somewhere in between, practical applications of electronic transactions are developing, but they are happening very gradually and through a process of trial and error.
To date the businesses that are gaining most are in the financial services sector. The Internet model is ideally suited to customers who know exactly what they want to do, and want it done quickly. Online banking and stock trading puts this power back into the hands of the customer, and the US experience has shown they are revelling in it.
According to a number of surveys conducted there, from a base of three million online stock traders in 1997, it is estimated 14 to 15 million will be trading online by 2002, and 30 per cent of all stock trades will be done over the Internet by 2000. Online banking, which is proving less popular than online trading, is expected to account for at least 19 per cent of the US banking market by 2002.
This rate of take-up is otherwise unheard of, but according to Mr Steve Goldberg, product unit manager for desktop applications at Microsoft, it is crucial not to underestimate the value of customer empowerment: "Smart companies understand that it is critical to pay attention to the technology that becomes available to their customers, even when that technology is not seemingly core to their business. The basic impact of well-designed websites, powerful computer servers and easy connectivity is that customers have access to their portion of your business all the time."
This means changing the cultural mindset of making as little information as possible available to customers, according to Mr Michael Hennigan, head of the Lafferty e-commerce research centre, and author of a new report entitled Web-Based Financial Services. In an extensive global review of brokerage, banking and insurance sites, Mr Hennigan concludes an online financial site will only succeed if there are a number of key factors in place.
The electronic delivery of services must be central to the business process and, accordingly, support structures need to be in place to maintain and develop this process. The focus needs to be on the enablement of customer transactions away from static information. The site needs to recognise its strengths lie in interactivity, strong content, simple navigation and design. It must also develop, which may necessitate entering strategic alliances and eventually strong links to gateway sites that make it easy for the customer to locate the company's site.
These are simply starting points, which if achieved will ensure a strong website, but the world's most successful financial sites are continually innovating to offer their customers better services. Competitive advantage now lies in the suite of services a business can offer online.
This does not come cheap, however, and Mr Hennigan points out that technology investment, content and research information and branding can require an initial layout of up to $80 million in the US market.
Look at the example of E*Trade, the second largest online broker, which recently started its new site with a promotional spend of $150 million, amid plans to open British operations in the next couple of months.
For the financial sector at least it is no longer a question of why, but when.
