ECB almost certain to raise rates again

THIS WEEK: Financial markets will watch this week for any unexpected pick-up in a key US inflation gauge or strength in job …

THIS WEEK: Financial markets will watch this week for any unexpected pick-up in a key US inflation gauge or strength in job creation which could shift fading expectations back towards an August Fed rate hike.

The euro zone will focus on the European Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday, when rates are widely expected to be raised amid a strengthening euro-zone economy.

A rate decision is also due from the Bank of England, for which economists see some chance of a rate rise.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for an 18th straight time at its next meeting on August 8th were fading last week after second quarter gross domestic data showed US growth slowed to an annualised 2.5 per cent.

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But the key personal consumption expenditure number, due out tomorrow, could revive forecasts of an August Fed hike if it turns out higher than anticipated.

Economists are fairly certain the European Central Bank will raise rates by 25 basis points to 3.0 per cent at its meeting on Thursday, marking an acceleration in the pace of tightening after June's increase to 2.75 per cent.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet signalled a rate move in early August when he talked of "exercising strong vigilance" in his last news conference and announced this week's meeting would be in person rather than the usual holiday month teleconference.

Euro-zone data to watch this week before the rate decision include inflation and business climate numbers today and employment figures tomorrow.

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee will meet on Wednesday and Thursday to decide whether to raise interest rates from the current 4.5 per cent.

Monday

Results: ABN Amro (Q2), Depfa Bank (Q2), HSBC (H1), Pearson (H1).

Indicators: Euro-zone consumer prices (July), business climate (July), consumer sentiment (July), economic sentiment (July), industrial sentiment (July) and services sentiment (July); UK consumer credit (June) and mortgage lending (June); German retail sales (June).

Others: The Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland issues monthly statistics.

Tuesday

Results: AIB (H1), Bayer (Q2), Deutsche Bank (Q2), Elan (Q2), Ryanair (Q1).

AGM: South Wharf.

Indicators: Irish manufacturing purchasing managers index (July); euro-zone manufacturing PMI (July) and unemployment (June); UK manufacturing PMI (July); US layoffs (July), personal consumption (June), personal income (June) and construction spending (June); German manufacturing PMI (July) and unemployment (July); French manufacturing PMI (July).

Wednesday

Results: BNP Paribas (Q2),Cadbury Schweppes (H1), HBOS (H1), Mittal Steel (H1), Starbucks (Q3).

Indicators: Euro-zone producer prices (June).

Thursday

Results: Amarin (Q2), Axa (H1), Barclays (Q2), Munich Re (H1), Trinity Mirror (H1), Unilever (H1),

Indicators: Irish services PMI (July); euro-zone services PMI (July) and retail sales; UK services PMI (July); US durable goods (June) and factory orders (June); German services PMI (July); French services PMI (July).

Others: ECB announces rate decision; Bank of England announces rate decision.

Friday

Results: British Airways (Q1), Royal Bank of Scotland (H1)

Indicators: Irish live register (July); US average earnings (July), non-farm payrolls (July); unemployment (July) and inflation (July); German industrial orders (June); French OECD leading indicators (June).