Christmas is not a traditional holiday in China, but shengdan jie is rapidly developing into part of the commercial calendar and shengdan laoren, or Santa Claus, is popping up all over the place.
There is a certain retail fatigue creeping in, after major shopping day promotions on November 11th ("Double 11") and December 12th ("Double 12"), but type the word Christmas into the Sina Weibo social network and it's a flurry of sales and promotions.
In the shopping malls, the shops started to promote Christmas offers in November, and supermarket sales are expected to increase by 15 per cent over the period.
It's becoming a factor in the economy, as Christmas becomes a date in the long new year market running until the huge Lunar New Year bonanza, which will fall in mid-February.
“Christmas is just an opportunity for rich Chinese to go abroad for luxury goods. China is holding up the whole global economy around Christmas time,” wrote one webizen.
Certainly the decision last month by the People's Bank of China to cut benchmark interest rates for the first time since 2012 lifted business sentiment as this policy had a positive impact on credit availability.
There is certainly more than a sprinkling of Christmas cheer evident in the €3.93 trillion Chinese stock market, which is currently rising at the fastest pace in seven years, and where share values are going back to levels not seen in four years. The bull market is inspiring ordinary people in a way not seen before: in one week this month, retail investors opened almost 900,000 accounts to trade shares, the most since October 2007.
At the same time, lower growth and austerity is translating into less demand.
“Shopping by individuals is about the same this year, but bulk buying is down. In previous years there were many purchases from hotels and bars and companies, but this year, the demand is reduced,” said a shop owner surnamed Wang.
According to the research group MNI, business sentiment among some of China’s largest companies increased for the second consecutive month in December, buoyed by stronger orders and increased availability of credit following the recent rate cut from the central bank.
"In contrast to other more downbeat official data on the state of the economy, our latest survey shows that businesses are already feeling the benefit from a raft of stimulus measures, including the recent cut in key rates. If sustained, then the renewed strength in orders should help to sustain growth over the coming months," wrote Philip Uglow, chief economist of MNI Indicators.
But there is a decidedly mixed picture of the Chinese economy emerging looking ahead to next year. The flagging property market means China’s economic growth could slow to 7.1 per cent in 2015 from an expected 7.4 per cent this year.
This is still enough to keep generating employment, as the service sector is growing strongly – it all forms part of what is referred to as the “new normal”, a phrase we can expect to hear a lot of next year.
"Changing economic environment and productive factors means a slower growth and necessitate a change in growth model and macro policy framework," wrote UBS in a research note.
“While reforms will be accelerated to strengthen the role of the market, the government will not shy away from using infrastructure spending and macro policies to support growth and resolve the risks of “high leverage” and various “bubbles”,” it said.
China will embrace Christmas cheer, but the new year holds the prospect of making some adjustments to the changing economic environment.
