IMF issues upbeat Irish review

The IMF has warned that Ireland’s recovery could come under threat from the global economic slowdown.

The IMF has warned that Ireland’s recovery could come under threat from the global economic slowdown.

However, it said there is no immediate need for Dublin to take “dramatic” steps beyond the measures in its bailout plan.

In an upbeat assessment of the Irish economy, IMF European director Antonio Borges said it was performing surprisingly well and that conditions now were much better than they had been before.

Ireland’s performance was exemplary but the situation remains challenging, he said.

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Although Dublin may have to accelerate spending cutbacks and tax hikes if the European economy enters recession, he said it was difficult to see how the Government could much more than it was already doing.

“As you know we can look at all kinds of downside risks and it’s not excluded that if there was a real recession throughout Europe the Irish would have to take additional measures but we are hopeful that will not be necessary,” he told reporters in Brussels.

Mr Borges’ remarks are at odds with senior figures in the European Central Bank, who have been pressing for an acceleration of Ireland’s austerity drive in Budget 2012 to ensure the recovery is not blown off course as the sovereign debt crisis worsens and economic growth slows down.

Together with the EU Commission, the ECB and the IMF are members of the “troika” which is overseeing Ireland’s international bailout.

Asked if the current turmoil should prompt the Government to take additional budget steps as a precautionary measure, Mr Borges there was no need at the moment to do that.

“I think they’re already accelerating the programme which I think is very positive, we’re not recommending that they go a lot further,” he said. “I think a steady implementation of the measures is exactly right and in that sense we don’t think this is the time to be considering additional dramatic measures which don’t seem to be justified.”

He expects Ireland’s growth may continue, except if there is a major crisis in the countries which are Ireland’s main markets.

“I think the performance of the Irish economy has been surprisingly positive. The growth figures came out better than expected, which is extremely reassuring. In particular, this is due to the ability to export. Ireland of course has a strong export base,” he said.

“There was a very, very strong effort to recover competitiveness with very bold measures in particular through wage reductions across the board and so forth which must have been very painful, but which in fact delivered the right results in terms of a much better export performance.”

The IMF was very pleased with the seriousness with which the Government and the Irish people generally were implementing the bailout plan.

“There’s some very difficult measures, they’re very tough, very demanding, but with good results. And I should say that if the same approach existed all over the programme countries we would have a much, much better situation,” he said.

“Ireland is exemplary in many ways. The results are beginning to be good, surprisingly good, which is very positive but the situation remains difficult and tense.

“In fact, with the new developments in Europe and the slowdown in growth this can have some damaging consequences for Ireland because all the growth is export oriented as it should be so Ireland is especially vulnerable let’s say.

“Let me say that if there is a major recession in Europe which we don’t expect but we cannot rule out Ireland will suffer inevitably but everyone else will also suffer a great deal.”

Mr Borges described the external economic situation as IMF’s chief concern in relation to the Irish rescue programme. “This said, I’m not sure that the Irish government can do much more than what they’re doing today. We just hope that things remain steadily on track in a way that restores confidence,” he said.

“It’s very positive that foreign investors are returning to Ireland and even in the financial sector are prepared to invest, which I think indicates that the situation is much better now than it was before.”

Arthur Beesley

Arthur Beesley

Arthur Beesley is Current Affairs Editor of The Irish Times