ESB power stations need to improve their performance if the Republic is not to face an electricity shortage, a new report suggests.
The report from ESB National Grid examines the likely supply and demand for electricity in the years between 2006 and 2012. It also warns that supply will be very tight this winter.
It says that, while the availability of ESB and other power stations improved in 2005, over recent years generators have missed almost all of their targets for output.
The report was released yesterday by ESB National Grid, which operates the electricity transmission system.
It is a separate body to the ESB Group.
The availability of ESB stations has been a source of controversy in recent years, with some of the company's plants regularly out of service for what are known as "forced outages", which means the stations are in need of maintenance.
"While there has been some progress in 2005, it remains crucial to ensure that the generators' predictions of long-term improvements will be met," the report states.
Availability rates for power stations in the Republic have generally hovered around 80 to 85 per cent over recent years. Using a figure of 80.4 per cent, the report suggests the system could manage until 2009. Thereafter, the position becomes "below standard".
If something is not done, the State will suffer a deficit of 800 megawatts of electricity by 2012, the report notes.
It says there should be adequate supply of electricity from 2006 to 2008 provided three things happen: the availability of ESB plants improves, stations under construction are completed on time and there are no unexpected closures.
However, by 2009, the report suggests there may be a need for new power stations.
It says Ireland should easily meet its target of getting 13.2 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2010, bringing several advantages, including emissions reductions, fuel diversity and sustainability.
But due to the intermittent nature of wind power, more conventional plants will be needed to back up the wind farms.
This type of backing up is currently done by older ESB plants, the report suggests.
Many of these may be approaching closure and new "flexible responsive plants" may be needed.
The managing director of ESB National Grid, Dermot Byrne, said medium-term generation would be "manageable" up to 2009.
He said this was possible, however, only if the projections from the various electricity companies prove to be accurate.
"However, notwithstanding this positive medium-term outlook, the short-term availability of the plant remains a significant concern and this winter will be a time of tighter than normal supply/demand margins," he states.
