Financial markets are probably the only markets that aren't in a frenzy of activity at the moment. It was extremely busy until today but the imminent arrival of the euro has made things shudder to a halt sooner than usual.
Settlement areas, already up to their necks with conversion administration, have issued thinly veiled threats to dealers who might get carried away with themselves and indulge in a spot of unbridled late-December trading.
A number of fund managers and market-makers around Europe designated Tuesday as their last day of trading to leave plenty of time for the undoubted red-tape problems to be unwound.
In the meantime, dealers can ponder the implications of January 4th and the brave new world of euro-markets that we can trade.
I was pleased to see that the British television advertisement to raise the profile of the euro, which showed a manager screaming and shouting at his employees (and which I deemed to be harassment) attracted 160 complaints from viewers who felt that the ad condoned bullying. There was a follow-up which tried to portray this guy in a more favourable light - you know the sort: "I'm a decent bloke really but sometimes I have to be harsh". They shouldn't have bothered. There's a difference between being strict but fair and being a nasty piece of work. Once a bully always a bully I reckon, and this ad uses the phrase "it's all in the line of business" to justify the kind of behaviour that would get you put outside the door at kindergarten.
And bad behaviour can damage your company. Newcastle United's share price took a dive when the directors, Freddy Shepherd and Douglas Hall, managed to get themselves reinstated on the board.
This was done without consulting the minority shareholders. Presumably Mr Shepherd and Mr Hall, who own 64 per cent of the shares feel they can do what they like and have decided that nine months in the wilderness is enough for denigrating the fans and laughing about how much they can be ripped off.
This is often a problem with recently floated companies where directors still regard them as personal fiefdoms. Big mistake in the long term. As is biting the hand that feeds you!
Anyway following Mr Shepherd's and Mr Hall's return, Newcastle's stockbroker, BT Alex Brown resigned.
This is perceived to have ruled out an immediate takeover of the club, and the only reason that the shares went up over the past months has been the takeover fever that gripped all soccer clubs after BSkyB's offer for Manchester United. It's certainly nothing to do with Newcastle's form. It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of directors, although I sympathise with any of the fans that bought shares.
Rather unfortunately, however, BT Alex Brown itself is under pressure in Europe - news reports say that it is expected to axe around 60 per cent of its European equities team. This follows the takeover of Bankers Trust by Deutsche Bank. Is bigger always better? It's hard to be sure about that . . . Financial institutions are becoming like supermarkets - huge conglomerates with lots of special offers but limiting your choice to the products they stock. Given that my family background is one of a corner shop, I'm not convinced that buying up everything in sight is necessarily best for the consumer.
Good news for consumers though (and for Maurice O'Connell, Governor of the Central Bank) last week when the latest inflation numbers were released - 2.1 per cent was better than most forecasts. Reductions in mortgage rates were the big kicker as was a fall in food prices. Mind you, that particular fall isn't reflected in the cost of food prices around the IFSC. One of our most-frequented sandwich places near Talbot Street (and there aren't many as inhabitants of the IFSC already know) has put up its prices by a whopping 21 per cent. So why have sandwich prices gone up when inflation is coming down? Supply and demand I suppose, and a healthy dose of capitalism. There are significantly more people in the centre than there were this time last year and, as far as I can see, only one additional sandwich shop. There are still only two places within the centre that you can get sandwiches at all. I shudder to think what it will be like when the Citibank offices open for business.
Politicians love telling us about the thousands of jobs that will be created, but they're a bit quieter about how these people are going to get to work: car, more chaos on Commons Street; bus, still none spotted in the quality bus corridor before 7.30 a.m.; DART, best bet if you live anywhere near one. They are quiet too about how the hungry hoards are going to be fed. Hopefully, Citibank will have a staff restaurant, otherwise 21 per cent will seem like a mere blip in the inflationary IFSC sandwich stakes.
By next week your significant other will be unwrapping your gift and I am going to give you the benefit of my research into the acceptable male/female gift. Men like toys, women like jewellery. You can't go too far wrong with either of these recommendations. Everyone should know by now that blokes will shove kids out of the way so that they can play with the Meccano/Scalextric/a train set or Nintendo (especially if you buy the Goldeneye game to go with this). Expensive hip flasks, leather wallets and gold cufflinks are all very well but anything electronic goes down well with the guys!
Maybe that stainless steel Nokia phone at somewhere between £600 and £800 is the thing - although this is also being marketed as the ideal gift for the fashion conscious woman. As I said, for women, jewellery is always good. I've been leaving magazines open at home on the pages illustrating huge diamonds, but the man in my life keeps closing them again. I don't know why these subtle hints don't work. However, once he doesn't buy me something useful for the house I'll be happy. And a word of warning guys - don't buy her the sort of lingerie you'd like her to wear, buy the sort she wants to wear! There's often a big, big difference.
Finally, though, I have to mention that a superb and inexpensive stocking filler is my final incursion into print for this year - Isobel's Wedding, a story of confusion at the altar, and available from all good bookshops!
Merry Christmas and welcome Europe 1999!
Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers
