Ghost of Eircom haunts privatisation plans

Eircom is no longer within the remit of the Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke, yet the fate of the former telecoms …

Eircom is no longer within the remit of the Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke, yet the fate of the former telecoms monopoly loomed this year over the semi-State sector.

With a slew of Government-owned companies lining up to float on the public markets, all eyes were on the poor performance of its shares.

That much-publicised flotation has failed, thus far, to pave the way for others - so as 2000 ends, the two companies on top of Ms O'Rourke's flotation list are in practically the same position as a year earlier.

Just as in early 2000, Aer Lingus remains first in the queue to float - and despite Ms O'Rourke's support of a partial Aer Rianta flotation, that remains on the back boiler.

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Other semi-States will face increasing challenges next year as the EU-backed liberalisation of sectors formerly dominated by the State continues apace.

Such firms include the ESB, where managers are seeking to convince its board that flotation is its best option in a newly competitive market.

If this happens, there is a growing sense that the company will be floated before Aer Rianta.

Bord Gais too has been assessing the possibility of a sale on the public markets.

Meanwhile, at An Post, managers are pursuing a strategic partnership deal with a big European operator. Ms O'Rourke sanctioned the company to seek such a link in late 1999.

At CIE Group, doubt continues to surround its ability to deliver on substantial investment in public transport, investment long denied to it and deemed responsible for the poor quality of its services.

The transport group's chief executive, Mr Michael McDonnell, suggested to a Dail Committee last spring that elements of its business could be floated too, but this was never seen as runner.

Aer Lingus still is. Yet despite the determination of its managers to float the airline this year - their first target was June - there is doubt now that this can be done before the Government leaves office.

The Budget earlier this month heightened that sense. This was deemed to clear the decks for a General Election next year despite public statements by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, who claimed to be determined to remain in office until mid-2002.

If the election happened next summer, one informed person said this week that the airline's flotation would have to be put back again.

The counter-view is that the float could proceed in spring - management's target - ahead of an election.

Even so, Aer Lingus's readiness for such a move depends on the resolution of pay disputes with pilots, cabin crew and middle managers. This process will be led by its chief executive, Mr Michael Foley, who last September replaced Mr Garry Cullen after his resignation in March.

Agreeing improvements to Aer Lingus pensions will be another crucial factor - as will an employee share option plan, the core details of which are already worked out.

Assuming these issues can be resolved and legislation finalised in the Dail, the airline will still face a hard sell to retail investors.

Understandably, Aer Lingus believes the stock should be sold on its own merits. The small size of the airline means there will be a limited number of shares to sell - but few would predict strong retail demand if Eircom remained below its flotation rate.

At Dublin Airport, Aer Rianta's board is now resolved to wait until after the general election - whenever that might happen - for a decision on its future.

It is understood the board expected a Government decision "within months" when it first mooted a partial flotation back in April 1998. It is still waiting.

Ms O'Rourke favours selling about 30 per cent of the airports company on the public markets but she has failed to secure support for the proposal at Government.

Among the Cabinet members believed to oppose the plan are the Minister for Health and Children, Mr Martin, the Minister for Tourism and Sport, Dr McDaid, and the Minister for Arts Culture Heritage and the Islands, Ms de Valera.

The position advanced by Aer Rianta's chief executive, Mr John Bourke, is that Aer Rianta needs access to stock market funds to secure its capital investment programme.

In advance of that, the company has extended the statutory limit of its loans to £350 million (€444.4 million) from £250 million. Aer Rianta faced criticism last summer from many Dublin Airport passengers who complained that safety was compromised at the arrivals terminal due to overcrowding. This was despite the completion of several new carousels that did not appear to be in use.

For the ESB, 2000 was the year the electricity market opened for the first time. The company also embarked on an ambitious expansion outside the State - in Northern Ireland, Spain and Poland.

The electricity company is expected also to apply to the Director of Telecoms Regulation, Ms Doyle, for a 3G mobile phone licence. It is believed to have entered talks with a number of international telecoms firms to form a partnership to enter the mobile business.

To ensure fair competition in the domestic market, the ESB entered a tripartite agreement to separate its grid management function - known now as Eir Grid - from the core company.

However, the Competition Authority and the electricity regulator Mr Tom Reeves have argued the agreement between the ESB, its unions and Ms O'Rourke's Department did not go far enough to ensure the fair management, development and maintenance of the grid.

A further infrastructure agreement between the ESB and Eir Grid to formalise such arrangements remains to be agreed. However, any significant change to the existing arrangement is likely to provoke difficulties with ESB trade unions.

The situation is sensitive because the company is still involved in complex discussions with its unions on a plan to reduce its workforce by a quarter - to 6,000 from 8,000. Final agreement is expected early in the year.

Around the same time, the ESB's board will finalise proposals for its future development and ownership. Managers want to float the company although any proposal by the board will have to be sanctioned by Ms O'Rourke and, in turn, by the Government.

If a flotation is agreed, the company's ability to expand its business abroad and in the newly competitive domestic market will be crucial.

Electricity market insiders believe the State company has handled competition well. While industrial scale power users are no longer subject to its monopoly, only a handful of new competitors have emerged.

One, CRH, decided to exit the market less than six months after liberalisation. It sold a half-stake in a proposed power plant in north Dublin to its partner Viridian the North's former state monopoly.

Viridian was one of three groups that secured a supply of Bord Gais gas for a proposed power plant in a competition run by Mr Reeves.

This was necessary because excess gas supplies are scarce and insufficient to supply all proposed power plants in Dublin.

The other successful groups in the competition - designed to foster liberalisation - are well established in the market or have links with existing players. These were the ESB, which plans a Dublin plant in a joint venture with Statoil, and RollsRoyce, which has an agreement to sell power it generates to Bord Gais.

While 2000 was a landmark year for Esat's founder, Mr Denis O'Brien, an electricity business he controls fared less well than his telecoms interests. EPower's difficulties included failure to secure planning permission for a proposed generation plant in Co Meath. It failed also in a court action it took against Mr Reeves and did not secure a supply of gas for a Dublin power plant it plans with a US-owned consortium, Ireland Power.

Bord Gais is not directly within Ms O'Rourke's brief. Yet any proposal its board makes on a possible future privatisation will have to be sanctioned by her.

That company's new chief executive Mr Gerry Walsh signed a deal with Enterprise Oil to bring gas from the Corrib field to Galway.

This will link to its national grid when a ringmain linking Dublin, Galway, Limerick and Cork is built. This development has been sanctioned by the Government.

Bord Gais is also seeking sanction to build a parallel Interconnector to its existing link with Scotland. A Government decision on that is expected soon.

For An Post, securing a strategic partnership is seen as a protective measure as its core letter post market opens to further competition - inevitable under EU rules. However, a partnership decision may be subject to resolution of the long-term viability of An Post's rural post office network, which it regards as unsustainable.

This was the subject of urgent talks between the company and the Irish Postmasters Union this year, although Ms O'Rourke has not yet received a report by the talks chairman Mr Phil Flynn. The most likely partners believed to be the quoted Dutch post office operator TNT Post Group or the newly floated Deutsche Post. Britain's Royal Mail, long seen as An Post's favoured partner, is now perceived more as a competitor.

Ms O'Rourke's greatest problems this year were at CIE. She faced strike action by train and bus drivers and was accused also of unwarranted interference in the company's internal industrial relations affairs.

This criticism was voiced by CIE's chairman, Mr Brian Joyce, who resigned unexpectedly, citing differences with Ms O'Rourke over the group's autonomy.

Mr Joyce was replaced by Dr John Lynch, the former director general at State training agency FAS who works now as executive chairman with CIE.

While Dr Lynch is charged with delivery on a substantial investment package under the National Development Plan, Mr McDonnell is engaged in court action over the improved terms of a disputed contract with his employer.

Improving public transport will be Ms O'Rourke's greatest challenge next year. Her hope must be that 2001 is marked by improvements in CIE's services, fewer strikes, and no embarrassing resignations. Infamously, she was in the bath when she learned of Mr Joyce's resignation.

Arthur Beesley

Arthur Beesley

Arthur Beesley is Current Affairs Editor of The Irish Times