The Republic's electricity system may be entering a "prolonged period of brownouts and blackouts" which could damage the economy and Ireland's reputation as a destination for foreign investment, a report has claimed.
The report by Amarach Consulting says recent blackouts in New York and Italy resulted from chronic under-investment and Ireland had been similarly "tardy about investing in its future power needs".
"Brownouts" refer to a situation where voltage drops below acceptable levels causing lights to dim and other electrical equipment to malfunction.
"Our electricity generation and supply system is a bit like our phone system in the 1970s: several generations behind the best of breed in present day use internationally, with massive investment required to plug the gap."
The report notes ESB measures taken to prevent blackouts - including hiring in temporary generators - but says this may not be enough.
"With the regularity of Christmas, we learn every year that mobile generators have had to be imported by ESB in order to meet the seasonal surge in electricity demand. It is almost as if we are trying to run the economy on battery power - fine for a time, but hardly the most efficient or sustainable way to keep going," it states.
"In fairness to ESB, it should be noted that this is the best they can do in the short term in the absence of strategic planning by successive governments in relation to our energy infrastructure. Their recent success in raising $1 billion [€830 million\] for infrastructure investment is a step in the right direction: but there is still a long way to go."
The report's authors, Mr Gerard O'Neill and Mr Michael McLoughlin, believe the lack of sufficient generation capacity is not the only problem, excess or back-up power is also an issue
"An electricity generation system that operates without this back-up capacity is one facing the prospect of severe power shortages and failures. In Ireland we have gone even further: not only do we no longer have any excess fail-safe capacity, we no longer have sufficient capacity to meet even a minimal increase in demand," they claim.
The report suggests one response to the power shortage would be to increase the amount of renewable energy, but currently new connections to the national grid are on hold, it says. It adds that a more unpalatable and unpopular solution might be examined - nuclear power.
"It is difficult enough to get planning permission for windmills in Ireland let alone nuclear power stations. But an interesting scenario presents itself: Britain will have to embark upon a major nuclear power building programme over the next 10 years. An option for Ireland might just be that - to take an option on commissioning or renting a new nuclear power station in the UK (Wales or the Isle of Man or Sellafield would be ideal)."
It adds: "Such an arrangement would allow us to fill a major gap in our electricity requirements until our indigenous, renewables generation capacity is installed and up and running."
It says radical measures need to be considered because the era "of cheap energy is at an end". A combination of international trends, European initiatives and domestic realities means energy costs to Irish businesses will rise inexorably over the next five years.
