Ireland on the ball in soccer economics

IRELAND would have been unbeaten in their World Cup group if Thierry Henry hadn’t made his controversial “hand-ball” intervention last year, according to soccer economists at National Irish Bank (NIB).

The bank has performed an economic analysis on the World Cup and concluded that Ireland would have emerged unbeaten from their group but would have been “pipped” for a spot in the next round.

Other countries whose economies are struggling – Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece – will have little to cheer about, despite making it to South Africa, NIB says. The ultimate victors will be Brazil (a strong emerging market), who will defeat Germany on July 11th, according to the study.

NIB’s conclusion is based on the difference in economic and football fundamentals between the competing nations.

The bank’s model presumes that richer countries have better teams because they can afford to invest in the game. Also, the economists say, a country with a larger population has potential access to a larger pool of skilled players. Football tradition, the current form of a team, the presence of “superstars” and home advantage are also deemed key factors.

NIB says it is “trop difficile” to factor in elements such as cheating by handling the ball.

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)also got in on the game yesterday, again selecting Brazil as the top team. However, PwC finds that there is no significant link between average income levels and tournament success. Home advantage is found to be “highly statistically important” by PwC, although South African fans may argue that point after yesterday’s draw.