The latest figures for economic growth have been overstated and are set to be revised downwards in early July.

The figures, which last week showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was running at 11 per cent at the end of September last year may be revised down quite significantly. According to Mr John Beggs, chief economist at AIB, the figures did not take into account revisions the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had already made to other trade figures.

The CSO reported that GDP was 11 per cent in three months to the end of September and 9.3 per cent for the first nine months of the year. However, according to Mr Beggs these figures should be 9.1 per cent and 8.2 per cent respectively.

The reason for the difference is balance of payments data, which the CSO significantly revised last month but did not include in the GDP calculations. Mr Mick Lucey, senior statistician at the CSO, said the balance of payments figures could not be included as they impacted on a number of areas. Revised figures would be published in early July he confirmed.

However, he added that according to initial calculations made by the CSO, the difference may be less than Mr Beggs was predicting.

Mr Beggs said balance-of-payments data were very important in the calculation of Irish GDP and GNP. The difference between the two measures is accounted for mainly by repatriation of profits by multinational companies. Revisions had significant implications for real GDP and GNP estimates. Mr Beggs estimates that GNP growth of 9.4 per cent in three months to the end of September will be reduced to just 6.1 per cent while GNP for the first nine months will be cut from 8 per cent to 6 per cent.

According to Mr Lucey, using already published figures but not including other parts of the national accounts which have not yet been incorporated, the 11 per cent GDP growth in the third quarter could fall to around 10 per cent.

Overall, GDP for the first nine months would drop to 8.8 per cent from 9.3 per cent. Overall GNP growth for the first nine months would drop to 6.5 per cent from 8 per cent, he added. These were not final figures and there would be other changes in July.