McCreevy's programme set to win Ecofin nod

EU finance ministers will discuss Ireland's Stability Programme for 2003 when they meet in Brussels tomorrow

EU finance ministers will discuss Ireland's Stability Programme for 2003 when they meet in Brussels tomorrow. They are expected to endorse the Commission's broadly positive assessment of the programme, which predicts a budget deficit of 0.7 per cent of GDP.

Tomorrow's meeting - and tonight's separate gathering of ministers from the 12 euro-zone countries - will also discuss proposals to reform the way the Stability and Growth Pact is implemented.

The Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Mr Pedro Solbes, has proposed to allow "small temporary deviations" from the requirement that euro-zone governments should bring their budgets close to balance if a member-state has made progress towards that goal and its debt is below 60 per cent of GDP.

The reform would still require governments to keep their budget deficits below 3 per cent of GDP. But Mr Solbes suggested last week that the 3 per cent rule could be relaxed in the event of war in Iraq, an event that would be judged an "exceptional circumstance".

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Germany and Portugal have already breached the 3 per cent budget limit, while France and Italy are believed to be close to doing so. Germany, France and Italy account between them for more than 70 per cent of the euro zone's GDP.

Following last month's agreement on savings tax, the ministers hope to agree tomorrow on an energy tax directive that aims to fix minimum levels of taxation for all energy products, including electricity, natural gas and coal.

The Greek Presidency hopes to secure approval for a compromise under which governments could apply a level of taxation down to zero to energy products and electricity, when used by energy-intensive businesses and down to 50 per cent of the minimum levels to energy products and electricity, when used by businesses which are not energy-intensive.

Businesses that benefit from such arrangements would have to agree to increased energy efficiency, broadly equivalent to the environmental effects that would have been achieved if the standard minimum rates had been observed.

In preparation for next month's meeting of EU leaders, which will focus on economic issues, the ministers will discuss ways to accelerate progress towards the EU's goal of becoming the world's most competitive economy by 2010.

The Commission wants the summit to focus on promoting life-long learning and research, setting targets and deadlines for implementing the EU's strategic, economic goal and improving economic policy co-ordination within the EU.

The vexed question of Mr Wim Duisenberg's successor as president of the European Central Bank is not on the agenda but could come up in informal discussions or remarks to the media, given last week's fresh setback for the leading contender, Bank of France governor Mr Jean-Claude Trichet.

Further doubt has been thrown over Mr Trichet's candidacy after a French judge said last week he would not decide Mr Trichet's fate in the Crédit Lyonnais scandal until June 18th, just three weeks before Mr Duisenberg retires.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times