Media & Marketing: Three new satellite channels will move into the Irish market, the Metro will win the battle of the freesheets, City Channel will no longer be with us and total advertising expenditure will rise by 7 per cent.
These are the just some of the bold predictions contained in the media forecast released this week by media auditing firm Billetts Ireland. The firm specialises in analysing advertising spending to make sure companies are achieving value for money.
Overall, the firm is very upbeat about the media landscape in 2006. While expenditure is set to grow by 7 per cent year on year, the greatest increase will be in television, which will witness a rise of 10 per cent.
"We are expecting the telecommunications, finance, retail and car categories to continue to invest heavily on television," says the forecast.
Press will be less buoyant in 2006, with revenue up 2 per cent. According to the forecast, advertisers are being more cautious with their press budgets and more selective in title choice, formats and numbers of insertions. It warns that some traditional press advertisers are diversifying into other media - including cheap satellite channels.
The forecast includes bad news for RTÉ, TV3, TG4 and Setanta. These channels are going to face further competition in 2006 according to the forecast, with the following channels setting up Irish "opt outs": Gold, Hallmark and Nickelodeon Junior. An "opt out" is where a television channel inserts local Irish programming/advertising into its regular schedule.
While it will not make pleasant reading, the forecast says City Channel, the service owned by David Harvey and some private investors, is in danger of folding during 2006. A new channel, Channel Six, will come on air, but the forecast does not expect it to make "a big impression on viewers".
As for newspapers, the forecasts says: "Metro wins the free daily newspaper slot and attracts younger and traditionally non-readers of newspapers".
Nigel Brophy, managing director of Billetts, explained his forecast in relation to Dublin freesheet battle.
"Yes, I am confident Metro will win, as they are more experienced in providing a high quality freesheet newspaper in every other major city in Europe; their shareholder base (Associated Newspapers, Metro International and possibly The Irish Times - subject to the Competition Authority) are cash rich and are willing to invest.
"Advertising agencies and their clients welcome increased competition among the daily newspapers as it drives down costs. Metro plans to release ABC circulation data early next year and is committed to next year's readership survey," he commented.
In relation to RTÉ, the forecast says audiences will grow, but not necessarily among younger adults, who are watching less television. Still, the World Cup will boost audiences in the summer despite Ireland's absence from the line-up, and RTÉ hopes hits like the Sopranos will keep audience figures solid.
Underlying a lot of the growth next year will be the maturing of the special savings incentive accounts (SSIAs).
"As the SSIAs start to mature in May 2006, we are likely to see advertisers convincing readers to spend their money on their products. The main categories to increase their spend include cars, telecommunications, retail, finance and holidays," it concludes.
RTÉ queries survey RTÉ has taken issue with a survey released in the last fortnight by Initiative, the advertising agency. The survey appeared to indicate the costs of advertising on RTÉ were well ahead of general inflation and media norms globally.
Since the survey was released, Initiative has had to withdraw some of its results.
The survey found that the average cost per thousand television viewers in Ireland was $12.73 (€10.83), while the global average was $7.09.
But RTÉ this week said this figure was misleading.
"As we trade in 14 different audiences, against various categories, it is very difficult to give a generic price," a spokeswoman said.
The station said that, while advertising on Irish television was 40 per cent more expensive than the global average, the figure used by Initiative of 50 per cent was not correct.
"Given that Initiative place Ireland as having the second highest GDP in the world after Switzerland, the 40 per cent differential was not as significant as it would first appear," it said.
RTÉ's adult cost inflation from January to October 2005 is running at 11 per cent. However, advertising expenditure over the same period is up 17 per cent, the station said.
Screen ad gains
Figures released this week show just how fast the screen advertising industry is growing. One of the pioneers of this technology, Digital Network Group (DNG), this week revealed that it has 350 plasma screens under management in a variety of food retailers and other outlets.
The plasma screens are transforming in-store advertising from a static paper-based overhead to a reasonable revenue stream for major chain stores.
This is a relatively new advertising medium in Ireland, although well established in the US where is it having a major impact.
Wal-Mart TV broadcasts to 130 million viewers per month in more than 2,600 stores, making it the fifth biggest network in the States behind NBC, CBS, ABC and Fox.
Third-party advertising from this network is a now major revenue source for the company with 30-second slots going for $300,000 (€256,000).
While a small country like Ireland will find it hard to meet these figures, the sector is bound to grow as shops try to influence consumers once they arrive in the store.
It is estimated that up to 70 per cent of purchasing decisions are made on the floor of the store.
MII appoints chief
Tom Trainor, a former vice-president of high-tech firm Trintech, has been appointed as the new chief executive of the Marketing Institute of Ireland (MII), the representative body for the State's marketing professionals.
Emmet Oliver can be contacted at eoliver@irish-times.ie
