Call him a lud, call him a dinosaur, but Current Account has always been deeply suspicious about the claims made about the mega-zillions that e-commerce is going to generate. The odd book or video from Amazon (a truly brilliant service - order a book on Monday, get it in the post on Friday) is the most this Net-user has ever bought over the Net.
And Current Account is even more suspicious about the combo of the Internet and mobile phones, especially when he looks at the incredible amounts of money being thrown around for third generation mobile phone licences. For that reason, this column has always looked a bit cautiously at the flotation of Independent's iTouch operation.
Now, the flotation of iTouch was hardly one of Merrill Lynch's finest hours, when the share offer had to be pulled back from an anticipated 100-130p trading range to an eventual float price of 70p, as investors baulked at the valuations being put on the company.
Since the float, iTouch shares have gone steadily south and bottomed out at 59p before rebounding after the company's maiden half-year results. Even before the results - which were admittedly a lot better than many in the markets had expected, with revenues up 56 per cent in the second quarter and short messaging revenue up 150 per cent - Merrill Lynch (the same organisation that was trying to get investors to stump up 100130p a share) came out with a "buy" note and a 12-month target of 118p a share.
Merrill Lynch did of course disclose its corporate relationship with iTouch - albeit in 6 point type (small advert size type), and slapped a 107-131p valuation on the company based on a rollout of its services in five countries. Break-even is forecast for 2004 and earnings before interest and tax margins of 39 per cent by 2009.
Maybe those targets will be met. Mind you, Current Account can never remember a broker saying something negative about any of their clients. So treat advice like Merrill's on iTouch with a little bit of caution.