Oil supply curbs likely to hold firm

Arab OPEC countries have virtually ruled out hoisting supplies at a policy-setting meeting in June, risking the anger of consumers…

Arab OPEC countries have virtually ruled out hoisting supplies at a policy-setting meeting in June, risking the anger of consumers as well as major Western nations which fear higher oil prices could hinder economic growth.

An oil source from OPEC giant Saudi Arabia said the 11-member producer group was unlikely to ease its stringent supply curbs during the third quarter - especially if brimming oil stockpiles showed no evidence of sharp depletion before the cartel meets on June 26th.

OPEC decided in March to keep output limits at 21.7 million barrels per day at least until the end of the second quarter in a bid to shore up sagging oil prices. "OPEC is unlikely to raise output for the third quarter based on current market fundamentals," a Saudi oil source said.

"Stock levels are in a comfortable zone right now, and judging by the supply and demand forecast, if you combine all these things, for now it looks like there is no need to make any changes to production for the third quarter," he said.

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Oil ministers from the neighbouring United Arab Emirates and Qatar backed his view that the prospect of an OPEC supply rise in June was remote, especially given high global inventories.

"For the time being, unless there is a dramatic change in oil prices or stock levels before the end of June, there is no need to change production," UAE Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri said. "Supply and demand is OK, and stocks are very high...so there is no need for extra supplies now." Qatar's Oil Minister Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said action posed greater danger than inaction.

"Our concern in OPEC is to meet a shortage, but if there is no shortage, and demand is OK and inventories are high, why should I shoot myself in the foot?" Attiyah said. "There is no reason for it [a change]. Supply and demand are in balance and supply might be bigger than demand," he said.

"But it's still to early to make a final judgement, because the supply-demand picture might change in the next few weeks," he said.