Predictions on IT developments spice up an annual report on all things tech

The publication of PricewaterhouseCoopers' annual technology forecast - a weighty tome running to nearly 800 pages - has added…

The publication of PricewaterhouseCoopers' annual technology forecast - a weighty tome running to nearly 800 pages - has added a little speculative spice to its musings on all things tech this year by adding a chapter on IT developments expected to happen beyond the normal forecast period of between one and three years.

This provides for much more meaty reading than the usual three-letter acronym meanderings about digital signal processing (DSP), enterprise resource planning (ERP), customer relationship management (CRM) and wireless application protocol (WAP).

No, much more exciting are predictions about DNA computing, wearable computers, gesture recognition devices and the use of holograms to store data.

The report identifies the inevitable shift from today's "one-to-one" computing where most individuals access all their information through a single personal computer, to "many-to-one" computing where the same individuals will soon access myriad sources of information through a range of fixed and mobile devices.

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This new computing landscape has exerted tremendous pressure on the designers of semiconductors - the chips that drive computers - to continue to double their processing power every 18 to 24 months.

Existing advances have been based on their ability to minimise micron process technology based on conventional photolithography, which has its limitations. The forecast identifies extreme ultraviolet, electron beam and X-ray lithography as potential alternatives once these limits have been reached.

Even these technologies are limited by the physical properties of the devices once they have been created, and eventually new materials and new types of computing devices will be required, based on non-semiconductor technologies. These include optical computing, DNA computing, and further down the line, quantum computing - all still very much in the early research stage.

The report predicts the computing architecture for the 21st century will largely be based on pervasive or ubiquitous computing and the increased use of virtual reality.

This conclusion is based on a common belief that computers no longer function as "discrete identifiable devices" with which humans interact through keyboards and displays. Instead - through pervasive computing - computers will disappear from the desktop and become embedded in the environment around us. And through virtual reality, the user will be absorbed into an artificial world created by the computer, becoming its own environment.

But while we look ahead to this brave new world of "information everywhere" made available through smart phones, palm-top devices, smart cars, and smart fridges, the market for them relies entirely on the software that will drive them.

The report points out that experience has shown significant advances in software are harder to achieve than improvements in components.

According to Mr Dave King, head of PricewaterhouseCoopers' California-based strategic technology group, and editor of the report: "The consumer is saying, what do I believe I need and what will I pay for that? There are so many individually developed applications out there but the consumer will ultimately choose the ones worth having. That is why the timing of the availability of all these futuristic applications is so tricky. It depends on which ones emerge as the most useful to the consumer."

The World Wide Web was designed by humans for humans to readily access the underlying infrastructure of the Internet. However, it was not designed for preprogrammed access by computers - a growing phenomenon. Achieving this, the report says, will depend on our ability to develop widely accepted standards for representing data to computers so they can behave intelligently and intuitively. This absence of an intuitive universal structure is the biggest obstacle to the field of knowledge management.

The report also points to the emerging "platforms" we can expect to provide an alternative to traditional desktop computers. These can be broadly divided between mobile handheld devices featuring wireless communications capability, and in-home consumer devices fitted with Internet access.

The home of the future is expected to feature e-mail access terminals, non-Windows based information appliances and electronic tablets based on mobile flat panel displays. Next generation television set-top boxes will combine Internet access with interactive television features.

Video game consoles, including Sega Dreamcast and Sony PlayStation 2, will begin to offer the computing power of supercomputers, and high powered graphics capabilities. In the not-too-distant future it may be possible to access e-mail, play video games, surf the Internet, watch DVDs and listen to CDs through one games console.

The report predicts smart fridges capable of ordering groceries online through a touch-sensitive display and bar-code scanner embedded in the fridge door.

Underlying the ability of new platforms to emerge, is advances in wireless communications, an area where the report identifies Europe as having a lead over the US. Industry standards and protocols are facilitating the rapid advancement of wireless communications.

In particular, the report says, advances here have been largely facilitated by wireless application protocol, which provides a consistent interface to a variety of wireless networks, and the Bluetooth initiative, which will allow a range of non-traditional devices sign on to a network using low-cost radio technology.

Mr King points out that while the race is well and truly on to ensure information is available to people at all times, the payment model for these services and potential revenue sources still remain unclear.

"Dot.com companies have still not figured out a workable business model for their services beyond the short-term model of gaining market share. Does the company offering expanded information and transaction services through mobile devices bear the cost of the additional service? Does it charge a monthly subscription to customers? Does it write it off against cheaper transaction costs? These are all very real issues that have to be worked out." Mr King says.