Some staff can only be trained to basic level

For many observers, there was a sombre ring of familiarity to Wednesday's confirmation of 770 job losses at Fruit of the Loom…

For many observers, there was a sombre ring of familiarity to Wednesday's confirmation of 770 job losses at Fruit of the Loom; not just because it had been public knowledge for many months the factories were in trouble, but because of the growing perception that in the Republic low-tech, labour-intensive manufacturing industry is doomed.

More and more, Irish workers are being told to retrain, upgrade their skills, stay abreast of technology - or risk winding up on the scrapheap of economic history.

This does not diminish the pain of jilted employees and their families, in many cases it seems to make things worse for them. When Krups said at the end of October it was quitting Limerick and making 500 workers redundant, the community almost went into shock.

"Krups was here so long that we expected it to continue forever," said one worker with 32 years service.

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The Government acted speedily, as it has with Fruit of the Loom, forming a task-force to find replacement jobs. But both companies formed part of a low-tech manufacturing sector that is being squeezed relentlessly by competition from low-wage economies. And whereas in previous years the public would have been treated to raft of platitudes about finding work in a similar industry, workers these days receive stark lessons in global market trends.

"The issue is not so much whether the jobs are available. It's whether the workers put the effort into reskilling themselves and adapting to modern industry," one IDA Ireland source said in the aftermath of the Krups announcement.

Government spokesmen did not disagree.

There are, of course, social implications to this consensus. In the past, for example, most people might have considered it unreasonable for the State to offer a man of 48 a stark choice between accepting a low-paid job or going on a computer training programme. But now, there being little serious hope of such an individual finding another low-skill job, such dilemmas will come to the fore.

This week, even in the wake of the Fruit of the Loom redundancies, IDA executives were blunt about the future for low-skill manufacturing industry. They pointed out that despite stunning employment growth in other sectors, the Republic has lost at least 1,000 jobs a year since 1994 in areas like textiles and clothing.

"Ireland is moving up the value chain. We were a low-cost economy, now the only way to survive is in a major movement up that chain - and that's what we're doing," one source said.

Both the Government and the IDA now hold the view that in business, the only path to success lies in constant re-adjustment to global trends.

"The key element is the pace at which you can respond - the ability of management to react," the source said.

Above all, this means a flexible workforce, capable of switching quickly from one activity within the company to another.

Sectors that often do not fit this category are textiles and clothing; the figures reflect this. The Economic and Social Research Institute tracks industrial employment across the Republic, and regularly issues forecasts.

According to the institute, employment in textiles has declined from 18,000 in 1981 to 10,000 in 1995. It predicts a further fall to 8,000 by 2003. Clothing and footwear follow a similar pattern: 20,000 in 1981, 12,000 in 1995 and 9,000 by 2003.

The figures for the engineering and machinery category, which includes much technology-related manufacturing, swing in the opposite direction; from 54,000 employees in 1981 to a forecast of 96,000 by 2003.

Financial services are expected to more than double over the period, from 34,000 workers to 77,000, as are other professional services, from 29,000 to 73,000.

But no matter how many retraining and graduate computer courses the Government bankrolls, these trends still leave the State and the IDA with an industrial development headache: A certain proportion of people can be trained only to a basic level, and these workers need secure jobs.

The strategy now is to focus on attracting large companies that carry out a wide range of activities in one or two large locations, often built on a "campus" style. Examples of this are the new Rank Xerox facilities at Dundalk and Dublin, where 2,200 jobs across all levels are planned, and IBM's similar operations in Dublin.

In both cases, the company has moved key parts of its European business to the Republic, and this acts a further anchor on the lower-paid jobs.

Call centres form part of the strategy, because while they are more mobile than other businesses, companies will also want to consider upgrading the skills of the workers providing the service as technology marches on.

Another IDA target area where some low or medium-skilled jobs can be created is shared services.

In September, the IDA scored a coup when Andersen Consulting said it would create 350 new jobs in a new European shared services facility in Dublin. Analysts said the importance of the deal lay not in the amount of new employment, but with the fact that Andersen plans to use the operation as a showcase for its many clients.

The recent decision by Citibank to increase its Dublin operation from 1,000 employees to 2,300 is also being seen as part of the success of this approach. Citibank said around 600 of the new workers will be expected to have Leaving Certificates, a similar number would have certificates, diplomas or degrees, and there would be a further 100 to 200 senior management and specialist positions.

For areas such as Donegal, however, a flaw has appeared, revolving around infrastructure. If multinational companies move large parts of their business to the Republic, they need to be able to get executives in and out fast.

This is not a problem in Dublin, but without motorways, trains or airports, some other areas are finding it hard to compete.