Speculating on Europe beyond the millennium

Ocean mining, intelligent vehicle highways, waste disposal into the earth's core, weather modification - these are just some …

Ocean mining, intelligent vehicle highways, waste disposal into the earth's core, weather modification - these are just some of the technological accomplishments that are likely to be seen in the coming decades.

For those who are in the business of making projections and devising scenarios for the future, advances in technology are assessed within a broad social, economic and political context.

This week, IBEC and the Institute of European Affairs hosted a workshop programme entitled Europe 2020, at which two reports looking at the region beyond the millennium were presented to an Irish business audience.

The reports by Andersen Consulting and the Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission identified a total of eight plausible, and in some cases overlapping, scenarios for the future development of Europe. Although the scenarios are not forecasts and are not probable to an equal degree, taken together they do present a useful tool for the business community in planning for the future.

READ MORE

Traditional models of strategic planning are no longer viable in the new era of globalisation and the technology revolution. Consultants stress it is now crucial to broaden the mind to take into account possible fundamental changes in the way life, work and economic activity are organised.

The first scenario presented by Mr Lucio Pench, co-ordinator of the Forward Studies Unit research project, Triumphant Markets, is based on the dynamism of the US economy continuing against a mediocre performance in Europe. Mr Pench painted a picture of acceleration in globalisation and enterprise restructuring and signs of the US entering a third industrial revolution.

Fast, wide and loose enlargement of the EU takes place and deregulation hits the labour market. Social services are privatised and citizens of Europe work longer but pay less tax. In this scenario, Europe experiences economic prosperity with an emphasis on technological drive and entrepreneurial spirit. Low unemployment is achieved but income inequalities increase. Society becomes individualistic and fragmented, with general demands for "law and order".

Mr Vernon Ellis, international chairman of Andersen Consulting, described a similar pattern of development in his Competitive Europe scenario from the company's "Europe Beyond the Millennium - Making Sense of Tomorrow" report.

This model of Europe is comprised of 26 countries with 500 million consumers. The euro is a strong currency following the "Black Tuesday" collapse of the US dollar. The institutions of the region are strengthened and based in Berlin. The Polish "Tiger Economy" is the toast of the EU and Europe is a world leader in e-commerce.

In Competitive Europe, employers are very powerful and workers are faced with uncertainty. The gap between the haves and have-nots has widened and society across the region has a growing underclass with limited access to information technology.

Mr Ellis described the other side of the coin in the Conscience Europe scenario. In this model, policy is not driven simply by shareholder value, and powerful institutions protect EU citizens. Workers pay higher taxes and the Social Chapter has more teeth. The euro is weakened by the assimilation of more members, and there is resentment within the old EU at the cost of subsidising new member-states. Businesses enjoy stability and moderate growth. Income gaps are less marked.

The third Andersen Consulting scenario is Patchwork Europe, a non-integrated model where the euro remains only in a handful of countries. There is a preference for the new virtual currency, the emark, and some national currencies have been restored at great cost. An e-commerce explosion has taken place in some centres and low-wage areas are attracting greater investment.

A common theme in the discussion initiated by the speakers was the need for employers to develop a role of social responsibility commensurate with their position of power. It was recommended that companies should develop partnerships with employees, government, NGOs and society in general.