Between 1985 and 1997 the number of new workplaces in the Republic where unions were recognised fell from 52.5 per cent to 36.4 per cent. The fall is most dramatic in the case of US-owned firms, where the number prepared to recognise unions fell from 69.5 per cent to 14.8 per cent, but a similar trend emerged among other foreign-owned enterprises and in Irish firms.

These are some of the worrying figures to emerge from a major study by Prof Bill Roche of UCD's Graduate School of Business. The study, entitled Ac- counting for the trend in trade union recognition in Ireland, is based on a survey of 450 workplaces. It provides, for the first time, hard data in an area where impressionistic views and anecdotes have been the basis for debate.

Prof Roche accepts the figures support the notion that our economy has been "moving more in the direction of the Boston than Berlin model over the past two decades".

The study shows the overall trend has been for increasing levels of "non-recognition" by new companies opening for business in the Republic but Prof Roche rejects the notion that this is a uniform trend resulting from more sophisticated human resource strategies in the workplace. Even among US-owned companies, he says the evidence shows a reluctance to recognise unions is more often based on imported board room cultures than a grand strategic plan to eliminate the trade union movement.

Much of it is to do with the fact that traditional heartlands of trade unionism such as large manufacturing plants are in decline and employment growth has been in service sectors which have historically been hard places for unions to establish a foothold. Workplaces, irrespective of the nationality of owners, have become less amenable to unions, Prof Roche says.

"You don't have to invoke arguments about globalisation or individualisation in the workplace to explain the decline in unionisation. New workplaces are developing in areas always relatively opposed to unionisation.

"Unions are now facing a magnified version of the problem rather than a hardening of employer attitudes. It is really only in the case of US companies that there is an indication of a very, very solid rise in non-recognition of unions that you cannot explain by structural changes in employment."

Prof Roche says growing non-recognition of unions by US-owned enterprises has developed across the whole spectrum - low-tech, high-tech, manufacturing and services-based firms.

"There is a very significant hardening of posture of employers against conceding recognition."

While there has been a tendency to identify this trend with highly sophisticated human resource management practices in companies such as Intel or Motorola, Prof Roche says the evidence suggests this is the common approach of US companies here. In most cases, policy reflects the fact that, "on the home base, US companies have adopted a much tougher line on union recognition. It originates in the US and has been adopted by companies as they move globally."

He points out that in the case of older plants, where US companies already recognise unions, they are prepared to leave them in place. "However, companies prepared to recognise unions tend to insist on new elements to agreements such as the right to deal with just one union in a plant and full flexibility in work practices.

"Paradoxically, US companies that recognise unions show much better human resources and industrial relations skills than those that don't, and are much more likely to report a good industrial relations environment," Prof Roche says.

The fact remains that, in the vast majority of new plants, workplace relationships are "dramatically different". Besides the change in corporate culture and value systems, Prof Roche points out that the old days when State agencies urged new companies "to recognise trade unions and bargain in good faith are long gone".

"The non-union phenomenon is now very well established and represents a very viable alternative model to the unionised one. To that extent the character of the system has changed. Many of these companies wouldn't think of going near State agencies, such as the Labour Relations Commission (LRC) and the Labour Court, when they have an effective in-house conflict resolution process."

He believes the success of US companies has been important "in setting the fashion for Irish employers". This is particularly true of the IT sector, but Prof Roche feels young Irish IT companies are still at the "improvisation" stage in their human resource strategies rather than having a thought out policy.

Asked if the new Industrial Relations Act allowing unions to refer recognition disputes to the LRC and Labour Court will make any difference, Prof Roche thought it unlikely in companies such as Intel with sophisticated "soft" human resources strategies, "because the problem the unions have is picking up enough members to impress bodies like the LRC or Labour Court".

However, US companies that adopted "a more opportunistic or coercive posture to remain non-unionised could conceivably find the new legal and institutional structures having an impact".

He accepts that the findings from his survey "portrays an industrial relations system that has been moving more in the direction of the Boston than Berlin model over the past two decades".

The present climate allows for "increased autonomy to workplaces in Ireland to `craft' their industrial relations as they choose".

The Irish Congress of Trade Unions has tried to tackle the problem at two levels, according to Prof Roche. One is politically through the high-level group on trade union recognition, which led to the new legislation, and the other is through cultivating workplace partnerships at local level.

The Irish Business and Employers' Confederation (IBEC) has adopted a "laissez faire approach" to the issues. "The IBEC view would be this is the way the Irish market has been adopting to global change and the need for a rapid response to competitive pressures."

The Government's position also reflects an acceptance that competition for foreign direct investment is intense and likely to get more so. About 48 per cent of all manufacturing jobs are now in multinational companies.

The new Act was "firmly on the lines of the voluntarist tradition and provides for coercion in very rare cases. It is based on the belief that in nine out of 10 cases it will be possible to resolve problems in face-to-face talks."