Several cable groups with Irish connections are expected to be in the final shake-up when Cablelink's adviser NM Rothschild works through the bids.
Since Tuesday, Cablelink's suitors and their financial advisers have been crunching the numbers contained in the information memorandum which was circulated this week, in an effort to establish a realistic price for the company.
Apart from venture capital funds and European telecoms companies, Cablelink is expected to attract bids from a TCI-led consortium in conjunction with Princes Holdings which trades as Irish Multichannel; US-based NTL which is cabling Northern Ireland; Cable Management Ireland (CMI) which has licences in north Dublin; Esat Telecom and United Pan-European Communications (UPC), a Dutch-based group with cable operations in Amsterdam, Vienna and Britain.
Those not expected to be in contention include Cable & Wireless which is involved in the cable business in Britain; Telewest (the largest cable group in Britain, whose shareholders include TCI); MCI/WorldCom and Time Warner. The latter expressed an interest in Cablelink many years ago, but is linked to TCI now through US long-distance carrier AT&T.
All companies are understandably keeping their cards close to their collective chests. MCI/WorldCom's chief executive in Ireland Mr Sean Melly said his company would look at the documentation. "We would only consider it in conjunction with a cable television partner," he said.
NTL has remained coy about bidding, but an all-Ireland company would be attractive and it is expected to be a strong contender. The $500 million (€441 million) investment in NTL by Microsoft last week, has strengthened its standing in the marketplace.
Analysts said yesterday that Microsoft's investment, which is expected to accelerate the roll-out of high speed data and Internet services, values NTL at $10 billion, although the company's current market capitalisation is $5 billion. Microsoft has also invested $300 million in United Pan-European Communications (UPC). This values the company at almost $5 billion.
"The public attitude to cable companies has changed radically within the last 18 months," says one analyst. "People now believe they can deliver the services and will be able to do so quickly."
Valuing Cablelink is difficult and none of the potential bidders want to put a figure on it, preferring to talk it down, rather than up. Many believe there is a definite move on to boost the price. However, all are agreed that Cablelink is an extremely attractive asset, despite needing to be upgraded at a cost of £200 million. And not everyone balks at a valuation of £300-million plus.
One potential bidder is adamant: "Cablelink will be sold on price alone." Other sources agreed: "The bottom line is price - most companies will have similar roll-out plans, so the business development plans won't play a pivotal role."
Many believe that Esat will have to bid. Getting Cablelink would give the company instant access to the residential market in Dublin, a market in which it is set to spend (and lose, initially at least) millions of pounds breaking into. Like others, Esat says it is prepared to look at Cablelink, but has not made its intentions clear.
Industry analysts believe Esat will bid, but may bring in another company with cable expertise and more financing to form a consortium.
CMI has previously said it intended to bid. The company, whose largest shareholder is Legal & General, the financial services group, currently has 65,000 customers. It is understood that CMI is currently negotiating with other telephony and cable groups, some in Britain, with a view to forming a bidding consortium.
Princes Holdings and TCI, which is the world's biggest cable group, are set to bid. TCI executive vice-president Ms Miranda Curtis told The Irish Times the company was looking very seriously at Cablelink. Princes Holdings director of regulatory, legal and public affairs, Mr Willie Fagan said the consortium felt it had the ability to build an urban/rural network - offering the same services throughout the State for the same price - if it acquired Cablelink.