Telco recovery gives boost to Vodafone's offer for Eircell

Current Account is a bit confused about what Eircom shareholders should do with the Vodafone offer for Eircell.

Current Account is a bit confused about what Eircom shareholders should do with the Vodafone offer for Eircell.

A few weeks ago, we wrote that Eircom should walk away from the Eircell sale, given the collapse in the Vodafone share price. Now the situation has changed, with telco stocks suddenly back in favour, and they will possibly be in greater demand if the story about European Investment Bank helping to refinance its 3G licence has any substance.

As this column was being compiled, Vodafone shares had risen above £2.20 sterling (€3.6) - a long way above the £1.80 the shares were at when we said that the sale of Eircell should be junked. After bouncing back 20 per cent from its recent low, Vodafone is within striking distance of the £2.47 level when the Eircell deal was first confirmed in mid-December.

So, purely in financial terms, the deal makes a lot more sense now that it did a few weeks ago. The other argument is whether Eircom shareholders would prefer two-thirds of their investment to be managed by Vodafone's Mr Chris Gent or their entire investment managed by Mr Alfie Kane. Anyway, with KPN and Telia panting to take any money on offer for their Eircell shares, the deal is pretty well done and dusted, whatever reservations Eircom shareholders might have about selling the family silver.

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So then, we're left with the Eircom fixed-line business where Mr Denis O'Brien, Mr Dermot Desmond and their assorted backers may go head-to-head.

It was interesting that this week former Esat Digifone boss Mr Barry Maloney - who pocketed £40 million (€51 million) from the sale of Digifone - said that Eircom should not only junk the Eircell sale but should also tell Mr O'Brien and Mr Desmond to go away and let Eircom get on with managing its own business.

In the case of the fixed-line business, Mr Maloney's thinking is that either Mr O'Brien or Mr Desmond would be more likely to focus on their own interests and these would not necessarily be the same as shareholders' interests. Eircom should batten down the hatches, cut its costs further and continue to churn out cash at a time when many of its competitors are retrenching, Mr Maloney suggested.

Current Account has a lot of sympathy with that position, but the reality is that the sale of Eircell is virtually a done deal. The rump of Eircom will be too small to remain in the longterm. One can only assume that a deal on the sale of the fixedline business will be done. We can only hope that Mr O'Brien and Mr Desmond square up to each other with competing bids. Otherwise, it's hard to see Mr O'Brien going much beyond his €1.10 a share indicative offer.