DIGITAL television could bring Irish viewers hundreds of new channels, but predicting the exact number that might be available is fruitless as the technology means there is little or no limit.
Digital broadcasting ends the notion of scarcity on the wave band, and the range available is exciting media companies all over Europe as they race to be first and therefore, probably, the biggest player.
Last month BSkyB's head of programming, Mr David Elstein, told The Irish Times that his company will be launching, up to 200 new digital television channels next year. But within a few days another Sky executive was quoted in a British newspaper that the number of channels would be far in excess of 200, possibly as many as 500.
Both BSkyB and the BBC have announced their plans to go digital. The BBC's director general, Mr John Birt, has plans for 24 hour news channels and new arts drama and documentary channels, while BSkyB's chief executive, Sam Chisholm, offered 500 channels, beamed down from a new satellite, to be launched in autumn, 1997, with a "foot print" geared for optimum reception in Britain and Ireland.
Within Europe giant media companies are circling each other, forming alliances and trying to read each other's intentions.
In Germany, Europe's fastest growing television market, Bertelsmann and the Luxembourg media company, CLT, have formed an alliance with Canal Plus. Opposing them is an alliance of the Kirch Gruppe, Nethold and Italy's Berlusconi.
A similar battle is taking place in France, with Canal Plus facing a conglomerate made up, again, of CLT, Bertelsmann, as well as Television France 1, two publicly owned stations and others.
The situation is so fluid that while Rubert Murdoch's BSkyB was nowhere to be seen, earlier this year he was part of the Bertelsmann alliance in Germany, leaving CLT isolated. Last week Murdoch announced his withdrawal from the European race, favouring the development of his strong British base.
Canal Plus is already offering 20 digital channels via satellite in France. It has also announced digital television via cable in Belgium before the end of this year.
Media analysts, doubt that Murdoch has disappeared. More likely he is waiting to see the outcome and then place his money with the winning group.
All the players give some idea of what they will offer. Most of it seems to revolve around sport and pay per view, a system whereby viewers pay for what they watch. It usually involves home shopping, as well as "near video on demand", with films offered every night with staggered starts on different channels. Services will include football which the subscriber can watch at different angles available on different channels by using remote control. The plethora of channels will probably include niche channels, everything from 24 hour golf, to educational channels and the so called "Gold" channels, showing old programmes, home banking and other services.
Some commentators believe that the upsurge in channels will allow the television to take over from the personal computer as the main vehicle on the information superhighway. Cable companies, including Cablelink in Ireland, are already investigating ways of providing internet links via the television cable. But few media executives, other than the BBC, say they will be offering better television. The best they can hope to come up with will be to offer unlimited choice and improved picture quality. The media companies have no idea if the consumer or viewers as they are now called want 500 channels, if they are unhappy with their TV picture, or if they want digital at all.
Donnach O'Driscoll is an executive with CLT and heads its British television interests in the new Channel 5. He is also the chairman of the Meath based Radio Tara. When asked if the media companies were convinced consumers wanted all this television, he says that the jury is still out. "The media companies are reacting to the engineers who are saying that they can now have too channels where they previously had one. There are difficulties' in the advertising market. Subscription means enticing viewers and that is done by offering more programming than the competition and that will mean themed and tailored channels. That is why they are going hell for leather buying up rights to give them the bait to attract audiences."
The rights Mr O'Driscoll is referring to are the sporting events being bought for large sums. But there are also hundreds of millions of dollars being spent with Warner, Viacom, Disney and other programme providers or product providers in the new media language in an effort to secure programming for the next to years. Securing, expensive and exclusive contracts has the effect, also, of starving the competition.
Next year Britain will have at least 24 new digital terrestrial channels, as well as BSkyB's satellite channels. It is the only? country investing in the terrestrial digital, rather than satellite route. Terrestrial broadcasters in Britain will not have their licences renewed unless they offer simulcasting in analogue, the current system, and digital. A complete change over to the new technology will, it is assumed, take between 10 and 15 years. Viewers will not be cut off from their television programmes for want of the right, technology, but at the same time digital will be pushed hard.
This incentive is considered necessary as the traditional television companies have not been as enthusiastic about digital as SkyB for instance. BSkyB, of course, can fund its digital investment from current profits, £237 million pre-tax last year. Its increasing business in Britain and Ireland is allowing it to surge ahead of its rivals and get into the market before the BBC or any ITV companies. It will then be able to set technical standards and buy up many of the services it wants. It will also be able to negate the fact that satellite services will have less interactivity than terrestrial digital, with its greater facility for two way communication.
For Murdoch, Bertelsmann, CLT, Canal Plus and Berlusconi the revolution that is taking place is a commercial not cultural one. It is not primarily about content but how we pay for our television. The Tyson Bruno fight in March attracted 660,000 people willing to pay £10 to watch the fight at 4 am. That was 15 per cent of BSkyB satellite subscribers. It showed that pay per view could work. Imagine the number of viewers who would pay £10 if the event was a major soccer match or rugby international, live on a Saturday afternoon.
David Elstein has no doubt that the rise of pay per view and subscription will spell the end of the licence fee as a means of financing public service television. He might be wrong, but there is little doubt that the growth of television, regardless of quality will further fragment the audience, forcing advertising rates down for stations like RTE and reducing budgets for programme making.
Irish viewers will have total access to the new television. BSkyB has made huge gains in Ireland because of the cable system and its new digital satellite foot print will include Ireland. For Irish broadcasters it is a question of trying to ensure they can still be financed to a level so that they can be heard above all these competing voices.
