BUSINESS OPINION/John McManus: This bank holiday Monday we continue our [very] occasional series where we look behind the major issues of the day.

I see Davy's Robbie Kelleher and the other Cassandras have got it wrong about the economy.

What do you mean?

Well the Economic and Social Research Institute has predicted the economy is headed for an "incredibly soft landing". Nothing to worry about then is there? The old Celtic tiger will be purring again in no time.

Not unless you live in Waterford.

What have you got against Waterford?

Nothing. I was just pointing out that on the day the ESRI said the economy is having a soft landing Waterford Crystal announced that it was letting 100 people go and shutting its factory for a week.

How typical of the media to blow it up out all proportion. The rest of the economy is doing fine and just fluffing the pillow for the old soft landing.

Its not just me. What about ISME?

Not that bunch of gloomy whiners again?

Yep.

What is it this time?

It believes something in the region of 20,000 jobs will be lost at small firms this year. And then then there is the Central Statistics Office?

Sigh... go on. You seem determined to ruin my day.

Thanks. Well it said on Thursday that employment in financial services fell by 1,100 last year. Bad news when you consider that is supposed to be a flagship sector of the economy.

The old ESRI got it wrong has it? We are headed for a hard landing?

Not quite. The ESRI itself is talking about some 17,000 jobs being lost this year and warned of falling growth and continued problems with inflation.

They call that a soft landing?

Yep.

Hate to see a hard one.

Exactly.

Right, lets move on. I see the Government is selling Aer Lingus.

No it's not.

Yes it is.

Oh no it isn't.

Oh yes it is.

Is your name Willie Walsh?

No.

Sorry. I thought you must be the Aer Lingus chief executive. He seems to be the only person in the State who thinks the airline is for sale.

How do you know it isn't?

The Government says so. Cabinet agreed last week to let the Seamus Brennan bring forward some legislation that would allow the airline be sold, but has decided not to sell it because the market for airlines is not exactly strong.

What is Willie Walsh on about then?

Well he says the airline, or to be more accurate a big chunk of it, is for sale. He says the money is needed now to buy planes at rock bottom prices.

Make sense, but I would have thought when the owner says it's not for sale it's not for sale.

That's is bit naive of you?

Excuse me.

If the Government did want to sell Aer Lingus, the last thing it would be doing is running around in the middle of a international aviation crisis advertising the fact.

I see. So it is selling it, but not telling anyone. It all sounds confusing for anyone who might want to buy the thing, not to mention pretty dumb.

Its not dumb. Its subtle.

I don't think this Government 'does' subtle.

Explain yourself.

Look at the Tánaiste last week saying the Growth and Stability pact rules should be relaxed to allow us borrow more.

What's wrong with that?

Nothing. Its just that she is the leader of the Progressive Democrats. The champions of conservative economics and self appointed watchdogs of Fianna Fáil. Remember that election campaign about how Fianna Fáil could not be trusted to run the State on its own. References to its lack of fiscal prudence. Its a bit rich for the PDs to now say Charlie McCreevy should be borrowing a few billion more than he has already.

Does Charlie McCreevy not want to borrow this money?

Of course he does. But he has made it clear that he also thinks we should stick to the terms of the Growth and Stability pact.

Hey. The Tánaiste and the Minister for Finances sending different messages. That sounds subtle to me.

No, that sounds dumb.