Tiger turns into pussycat over policy on rate cuts

The Celtic Tiger has turned into a Celtic pussycat

The Celtic Tiger has turned into a Celtic pussycat. No longer do we hear the roar of our successful monetary policy but rather the miaow of a domestic cat ready to be trained.

In what is likely to be a sign of things to come, our theoretically independent Central Bank has effectively been rebuked by its big brother, the European Central Bank.

It is becoming clearer by the week that the so-called second line countries will have to adapt to Europe on all matters economic.

In only the past week two senior German central bankers have publicly said our interest rates will have to fall sooner rather than later.

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There will certainly be no averaging of EU rates; all countries will have to drop to levels suitable for the French and German economies.

The Central Bank is still maintaining it has a choice. But signs of annoyance are becoming more apparent. Any "accidental" comments about the Germans from those in authority are almost automatically ruled "off the record". And our officials almost always refuse to comment on matters such as the likely starting point for euro interest rates. which are talked out by the confident Bundesbank and ECB officials almost constantly.

While the Central Bank may take ECB president Mr Wim Duisenberg's comments on board and begin cutting interest rates sooner than it would otherwise have done, it remains to be seen how the Department of Finance will cope with similar pressure.

The Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy, is unlikely to take too kindly to what he would see as interference from Frankfurt. While he will have to pass his Budget by the new all-powerful body, he insists that they will see none of the detail.

But if inflation remains and tax cuts are delivered the ECB is unlikely to remain silent. Whether the Minister will roll over in front of his masters is still not clear.