A 'futurist-in-residence' is helping the publisher of the New York Times adapt to new forces shaping the media, writes Joshua Chaffin.
Arthur Sulzberger jnr, publisher of the New York Times, made headlines recently when he told an Israeli journalist that he did not know - or care - whether the 156-year-old paper would be distributed in its familiar print form five years from now.
While Sulzberger's comments were provocative - and potentially frightening to New York Times readers of a certain age - there was one problem: they seemed to contradict the man the New York Times Company is paying to predict the future.
"We think the paper'll probably be around longer than many people expect," says Michael Rogers, who joined the company a year ago as its futurist-in-residence, a title emblazoned on his business card.
Rogers's recruitment is part of a broader effort at the publishing company to recapture a spirit of innovation.
Lack of that sprit may not have been so apparent - or painful - in recent decades, when US papers enjoyed lucrative regional monopolies. But it has never been more apparent than today, in an era of digital distribution.
Rather than accept a dusty fate, the tradition-bound New York Times Company is trying to adapt. So 16 months ago, it hired Michael Zimbalist, the former head of the Online Publishers Association, and asked him to establish a research and development (R&D) group. "It was sort of in recognition of the fact that the media landscape was changing so quickly," Zimbalist says.
To fill out his team, he plucked seven technology and computer-science hotshots from places like the Media Lab at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. As he ticks off their qualifications - a maths whizz, a linguist, a newspaper designer and a "business catalyst" - one imagines the early scenes of a Hollywood action film, in which superheroes with diverse talents are assembled for a big mission.
The star of the group, though, may be Rogers, who is being asked to not only keep abreast of changing technology, but to help the company think about the forces that will be shaping the world and its readers a decade from now.
"I became a futurist by calling myself one," he jokes. Rogers also prepared for the role with an eclectic career path. He studied physics and creative writing at Stanford University and then spent a decade at Rolling Stone magazine. From there, he moved on to Newsweek, where he covered Silicon Valley in the 1980s, and became fascinated by new technology. Soon he was leading the Washington Post Company's new media efforts.
The New York Times Company is not the only newspaper publisher to try to jumpstart innovation. Last year, the Los Angeles Times created a "Manhattan Project" staffed by its own investigative reporters and editors to search for ways to revive the newspaper.
Not everyone is convinced that such grand plans will work. One recent visitor to the Times R&D group, for example, said that a "bunch of brainiacs from MIT" was no substitute for the start-up culture of the West Coast where Google and YouTube were born.
Rogers dismisses that criticism, noting that many of the group's members have start-up experience from both coasts. "We're not unfamiliar with how that culture works," he says.
There are three trends that have caught the team's attention: the increasing availability of low-cost broadband; the emergence of user-generated content; and a proliferation of mobile phones and other handheld devices.
Rather than replacing the newspaper, however, the company believe that these digital gadgets could reinforce its role as a central roadmap.
Readers will use the newspaper as a jumping-off point that guides them to richer features online.
One of the recent innovations they are most enthusiastic about is the Times Reader. Using Microsoft's new Vista software, it reformats the paper automatically to fit a variety of screens - from traditional personal computers to mobile phones and portable tablets.
For readers, it makes the electronic newspaper look and feel more like the familiar printed product. For editors, its adaptability means that they can publish a single electronic version of the paper for multiple screens rather than having to tailor a new offering for each device.
"That's profoundly important," says Rogers, who envisions the New York Times as a "digital foundry" spitting out content for a variety of devices and platforms. If his predictions prove accurate, then one of those outlets will continue to be newsprint.
"Paper is hard to compete with," he says, sounding more like a traditionalist than a futurist. "It's low cost, it's extremely high resolution, and it's disposable." - (Financial Times service)
