Just weeks before a general election, the British budget was always going to be a highly political affair. Not surprisingly, Chancellor George Osborne made much play of the recovery in the British economy and particularly the strong growth in employment. Austerity is far from over, he made clear, but his approach clearly suggested that recovery is now strong enough to swing the election in favour of the Conservatives. We will know, soon enough, whether the British public agree.
Hemmed in by the need to cut borrowing, and by the cautious approach of coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, Osborne played a steady hand. There was no major budget surprise. His pitch was that austerity is now easing and that there is some leeway to help taxpayers. Still, three more years of spending cuts lie ahead and in some areas the figures still look challenging.
If economic growth builds, the targets may be achievable for whoever forms the next government, but it will not be easy and some government departments will remain in the firing line. However the election pitch for the opposition will not be easy, as the Labour case that austerity would destroy economic growth has not come to pass. Instead, growth has revived – albeit that at just over 2 per cent it remains modest – and the pace of increase in employment has been particularly surprising.
Questions remain to be debated in the election campaign. While the pace of job creation has been encouraging, productivity growth has lagged across the economy and earnings growth has disappointed. Living standards have stagnated. Britain has a significant deficit on the current account of its balance of payments, which puts a question mark against its ability to sustain growth in the years ahead.
The pitch from the Labour opposition is likely to be the need for a significant increase in public investment to achieve this. The Conservatives, meanwhile, will go on the familiar message that they can be trusted with the economy.
Like pretty much every economy after the economic growth, Britain faces the question of how to rebuild and how to balance the need for public investment and service provision with the need to control exchequer borrowing in a time when growth may well remain subdued.
Britain’s economic recovery is good news for Irish exporters. Perhaps it also makes British exit from the EU less likely – and this would also be welcome from an Irish viewpoint. Our jobs market also shows some similarities in its flexibility and its ability to bounce back over the past couple of years.
Just like in Britain, our next Budget will be the last before a general election and the message will be a similar one of recovery, even if the details differ. The lesson from London is the obvious one; don’t expect too much from a pre-election budget.