After the troubles of recent years many thought 2003 would be better, writes Colm Ward

The threat of a second Gulf war and economic uncertainty in the United States has dampened hopes that this year would see an upturn in the number of overseas visitors travelling to Ireland for St Patrick's Day.

Following a difficult couple of years as a result of the September 11th attacks and the foot and mouth crises, many in the tourism sector thought that 2003 would bring better news. And for a while it looked like it might, with numbers in the early part of the year up considerably on 2002. But that optimism quickly dissipated as the threat of war again caused US visitors to alter their travel plans.

"The visitor numbers from the US are down," said Ms Ciara Sugrue, marketing manager with Dublin Tourism. "Definitely, this year and last year we are seeing fewer American visitors, probably because of economic reasons." The decrease in US visitors has been offset somewhat by people coming to Dublin from Britain and other parts of Ireland, according to Ms Sugrue.

Tour operators are also affected by the decline but numbers for this weekend are expected to be similar to last year, according to Mr Stan Ryan of CIE Tours International.

However, this represents a downturn since the beginning of the year. "Early in the year, we were up 10 or 15 per cent on last year," said Mr Ryan.

He believes that the uncertainty surrounding war in Iraq has not caused people to cancel short-term travel plans but that they are less willing to make longer-term plans. This may have a knock-on effect on tourism numbers into the summer and beyond.

Hoteliers in particular are concerned that the fall-off in US visitors will have a negative effect on their summer trade but, according to the chief executive of the Irish Hotels Federation, Mr John Power, the number of overseas visitors for this weekend is similar to last year. "We are reasonably happy about [this weekend\] but are very concerned from April, particularly June, July and August," he said.

There has been a noticeable slowdown in bookings from the US since Mr Bush's State of the Union address at the end of January in which he reiterated his determination to disarm Iraq, by force if necessary.

Faced with the prospect of US citizens staying at home this year, many hotels have turned their focus to the Irish and UK markets, with some offering special deals to fill beds over the bank holiday weekend.

"We knew from January and February we had to be planning for St Patrick's Day," said Ms Maria Kelly, sales and marketing manager with Galway's Ardilaun House Hotel. Instead of focusing on American tourists who would typically stay for one or two nights, the hotel is targeting Irish visitors with special three-night packages.

Dublin has been the epicentre of the celebrations over the weekend with a wide range of events being organised for the St Patrick's Festival in the capital. One group that has not been deterred by the situation in the Gulf are the dancers, marchers and cheerleaders that will be performing during the festival. None of the groups scheduled to take part cancelled their bookings.

The number of overseas participants and their supporters has increased by 50 per cent since last year, as has the number of seats booked in the viewing grandstands, according to Ms Maria Moynihan, festival chief executive.

"This is just the tip of the iceberg 56 per cent of visitors in Dublin have come specifically for the festival," she said.

Of the 1.2 million people who were expected to be in the capital over the weekend, 20 per cent - or 240,000 people - came from overseas, according to Dublin Chamber of Commerce.

This represents a slight increase on the previous two years.

Aer Lingus has carried 75,000 people into and out of Ireland over the weekend. Of these, 11,000 will be trans-Atlantic passengers, which is broadly similar to the situation at this time last year, said a spokeswoman.