Mr Wim Duisenberg insisted yesterday that his decision to leave office on July 9th next year was entirely for personal reasons and was not prompted by any outside pressure.

"I hope to be 68 on that day and I am inclined to say enough is enough," he said.

But the timing of the announcement - halfway through his eight-year term - aroused suspicions that the European Central Bank (ECB) president was fulfilling his side of the shabby deal that won him the job in the first place.

In 1998, France agreed to allow Mr Duisenberg to become president of the Bank on the condition that he would step down halfway through his term and make way for the French central bank governor, Mr Jean-Claude Trichet.

Mr Duisenberg has always denied that such a deal was made. However, he has long acknowledged that, because of his age, he was unlikely to serve a full term in office.

His insistence on staying until next year could serve the purposes of Mr Trichet. He is currently facing investigation for his alleged role in the near-collapse of France's Crédit Lyonnais bank in the early 1990s.

The French central banker is admired among his peers and is seen by many analysts as possessing a safer pair of hands than the gaffe-prone Mr Duisenberg.

Mr Trichet will hear next month if he is to face criminal charges - a turn of events that would end his hopes of leading the ECB.

Even if he is exonerated, some observers - particularly in Germany - believe the investigation has already made him an unsuitable successor to the irreproachable Dutchman.

If Mr Trichet falters, France will undoubtedly insist on its right to nominate an alternative. One candidate would be the ECB's current vice-president, Mr Christian Noyer, whose term of office ends in May.

Mr Noyer has performed his role with modesty and efficiency, acting as the demure bridesmaid to Mr Duisenberg's bride at the ECB's monthly press conferences.

However, he lacks the international profile of the former French finance minister, Mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn, or the present incumbent Mr Laurent Fabius.

If Mr Trichet is exonerated next month, he remains the favourite to succeed Mr Duisenberg.

If he withdraws from the race, some EU leaders may attempt to wrest the succession from France.

Among the possible candidates outside France are Mr Otmar Issing, the ECB's chief economist, and Spain's central banker, Mr Eugenio Domingo Solans.