It's not going to be easy. And Charlie McCreevy's ministerial colleagues are unlikely to allow him off the leash in the way they did before the last Budget. That time, he astonished an unprepared public with his individualisation proposals, was forced to compensate those affected and blew the political benefits of a £1 billion giveaway.

This time, there will be heavy negotiations with the social partners. And Bertie Ahern and his colleagues will probably insist on a hands-on approach. Three months of negotiations and political horsetrading will finally decide whether Mr McCreevy emerges as a competent, if somewhat unfortunate, Minister for Finance, or as an arrogant bungler who managed to get it spectacularly wrong when times were good.

The Minister has asked his colleagues to judge him on the basis of five Budgets in the lifetime of this Government. But he has already delivered three, and two of those have generated unnecessary controversy and public dismay. Getting the next one right is vital. After that, it will be something of a miracle if the Government lasts through the summer of 2001.

The succession of controversies that swirled around Mr McCreevy has dimmed his image. And with the Government sliding inexorably towards a general election, while an autumn of tribunals threatens, Fianna Fail backbenchers are looking nervously to their seats. Their concern has been whetted by a suggestion that, on present figures, the party could lose up to 12 seats.

So the Minister has a mountain to climb in reassuring his colleagues. Memories of Mr McCreevy's head-to-head confrontation with the credit union movement in 1997 are still fresh among backbenchers. Twenty of them publicly opposed his individualisation proposals in last year's Budget. And there was hardly a supporting voice to be found, outside Cabinet, when he came up with the name of Hugh O'Flaherty for a £147,000 job at the European Investment Bank.

The result last June of the Tipperary South by-election said it all. Fianna Fail support plummeted to an all-time low in the aftermath of Mr O'Flaherty's nomination. And the Minister for Finance was being blamed for the fiasco with the Taoiseach and the Tanaiste in supporting roles.

In 1997, as the vigour of the tiger economy was borne in on the public, he was being spoken of as a possible future leader of Fianna Fail, should anything untoward happen to Bertie Ahern. Since then, however, his political judgment has taken a hammering and a sizeable section of his colleagues now wonders what makes him tick, with words like "arrogant" and "stubborn" being bandied about.

One of the problems is that Mr McCreevy's political instincts run ideologically counter to the populist Fianna Fail approach. It is no secret that he was head-hunted by the Progressive Democrats to join at the time of their founding and he remains very friendly with Mary Harney.

As an accountant with strong views on tax and social welfare and how those systems should be changed, he tends not to listen too closely to his colleagues or to his officials. While minister for social welfare in 1992 he introduced a series of spending cuts that became known as the Dirty Dozen. And, in Finance, when the choice was between doing a little bit for everyone or doing a lot for the few, Mr McCreevy favoured the better-off.

This time it will almost certainly be different. With inflation running at twice the Budget estimate, the Minister for Finance cannot ignore the dangers of again favouring the wealthy. The Irish Congress of Trade Unions will be seeking to enhance the living standards of its members. And social welfare recipients and pensioners will be playing catch-up.

Pressure on the Minister to resign will probably intensify. Michael Noonan of Fine Gael and Derek McDowell of the Labour Party have already called for his head. And they can be guaranteed to raise the issue when the Dail returns in October. But such skirmishing is unlikely to cut any ice with the Kildare man. As a horse-racing aficionado and poker player, Mr McCreevy is unlikely to lose his nerve.

The priority, as far as the Coalition is concerned, is to bury the O'Flaherty issue and get on to next business. But that requires someone to take the blame. By last night Mr McCreevy was refusing to face the music, and Bertie Ahern was lying low in Dublin.

The Cabinet chooses a new candidate next Wednesday. At the moment, feelers are out for a squeaky-clean banker who would not give offence to a reverend mother. Fianna Fail might get lucky. After all, there is a £147,000 price tag on the job. And it has been some time since Dame Fortune smiled on the Minister.