Clinton visit may help to open peace paths but time is short

President Clinton's presence in Belfast's new Odyssey Centre inspired Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness to join in the Mexican…

President Clinton's presence in Belfast's new Odyssey Centre inspired Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness to join in the Mexican wave. What was also required, according to SDLP Minister Mark Durkan, was some American inspiration to end the North's Mexican standoff. Maybe the US President provided it.

President Clinton has departed these shores, leaving an impression that even as outgoing US leader he still has clout. "Cut the nonsense, do the business," was his message this week, and his message for the past eight years.

Certainly, he galvanised Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern to serious action. They are to meet soon. Their agenda is no secret: toppling south Armagh watchtowers, policing, the IRA putting arms beyond use and an end to the North-South ban on Sinn Fein ministers.

There appears to be a developing willingness to strike a deal. Insiders say work is happening in earnest behind the scenes, and that the British and Irish governments believe the final hurdles can be cleared.

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And, according to Sinn Fein, that is the most important factor to emerge from President Clinton's visit. Northern Ireland is back in the British Prime Minister's central range of vision now, republicans believe.

"We find that when Tony Blair is concentrated on the problem something happens, but when he loses interest things fall apart," said one senior party figure. That maybe is the real benefit of President Clinton's visit, that it helped refocus Tony Blair on what needs to be done."

Anti-agreement unionists have been quick to disparage the importance of President Clinton. So have some right-wing British commentators. They look forward to President Bush II, and an end to active US interest - or interference, as they would have it - in our little problem.

They would need to be careful here because, according to historian and Northern journalist Billy Kennedy, George "Dubya" Bush can trace his forebears back to Co Antrim. The enterprising Irish-Scots-American lobbies could yet persuade him there is kudos to be gained from brushing up on his genealogy.

The US President's successor could be advised of the advantages of capitalising on whatever Irish or Scots-Irish roots he may have. Mr Clinton enjoyed the Irish experience and he made his mark.

On this visit President Clinton didn't solve the final difficulties, but he reinforced the need to steady the Belfast Agreement. He also made it plain to the general public that securing the peace is not a spectator sport.

Five years ago the North was shakily entering into a period of relative stability and President Clinton's arrival allowed ordinary people to give emotive, cathartic expression to their desire that the peace will hold and flourish.

There have been hitches and breakdowns since then, but despite the pressures the new dispensation is reasonably firm. People welcomed the US President in his valedictory visit but not as fervently as in 1995. Now they are more accustomed to the relative peace. They may be a little blase.

There isn't that same sense of people needing American and other outside reassurance that the peace won't be readily lost. President Clinton, with his practical and personal support for the peace process and the Belfast Agreement, played a substantial role in creating that public confidence.

He flew out of Northern Ireland on Air Force One on Wednesday evening for the last time as US President, leaving behind British, nationalist and unionist politicians trembling on the brink of resolving their outstanding difficulties.

The US President encouraged Tony Blair, Gerry Adams, David Trimble and Seamus Mallon closer to the edge. He engaged in plain talking and spelt out the sequencing arrangement as he saw it. But he couldn't push them over.

That must be voluntary, the main players realise. And it must be clearly understood that if the British government moves on demilitarisation, or the SDLP on policing, or republicans on weapons, that this will be part of a copper-fastened, agreed package. This is not a time for "You first" sham politeness.

President Clinton couldn't coerce the disputing parties into shaking hands and doing a deal. But, according to SDLP, Sinn Fein, Ulster Unionist and British and Irish sources, he sharpened minds on how that might be achieved - do business, cut the nonsense.

The British government took exception to some interpretations of President Clinton's Odyssey Centre address. Some insiders suggested he was calling on the British government to make the first move.

That was based on President Clinton's elaboration of how the problems might be overcome. "First," he said, "the Patten report must be implemented and on that basis leaders from every part of the community must commit to make the new police service work. There must be security normalisation and arms put beyond use."

British sources were anxious to argue that despite that "First", the overall tone of the speech was that there was a mutuality of responsibility to end the deadlock, and it didn't necessarily fall to Tony Blair to make the initial jump.

None the less, some Irish and nationalist sources believe the initiative must come from the British government, but in the context of everything being choreographed beforehand. "There has to be an interconnection to all this," said one British insider, concentrating on the holistic approach.

Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will try to create the conditions for a deal before Christmas, but January or early February would appear a likelier target for resolution, if resolution is possible.

This has gone on so long that all the principals are well schooled in what is needed. Time is not unlimited. If it goes beyond early February politicians will start cranking into election gear, thus restricting the opportunities for political risk-taking.

The Clinton visit created real potential for a final agreement. But, strike quickly, was the message from the US President.